號稱中國第一大經濟貪污案的「遠華走私案」，日前宣布偵查終結，6個月前剛剛從加拿大引渡回中國的賴昌星，對走私、行賄犯罪事實供認不諱。外界分析認為，賴昌星認罪，只不過是照劇本演出的一場戲而已，而中共當局在這個時機宣布「遠華走私案」終結，說明了黨內利用賴昌星案件的政治內鬥已經平息，估計今年的十八大政治布局的框架已經基本確定。
據大陸官方報導，賴昌星現已被移送廈門檢察院審查起訴。熟悉中共高層貪腐內幕的賴昌星自1999年潛逃到加拿大後的十二年裡，一直試圖申請加拿大政治庇護，但在中共的長期壓力下，加拿大最終拒絕了他的避難申請，2011年7月23號，加拿大政府獲得中共當局保證「不對賴昌星處以死刑」的承諾後，將賴昌星遣返回中國。
美國華府人權律師葉寧：「賴昌星這個案件有很多政治在裡面，賴昌星曾經為中共國安部工作的這麼一個密探，一個間諜，那麼賴昌星又掌握了大量的中國所謂黨和國家領導最高決策的最高層的機密，按道理來說，賴昌星這個案子不屬於引渡的範圍，而且中共政府雖然保證不對賴昌星使用死刑，但是不能保證中共政府不使用酷刑。」
外界對賴昌星認罪普遍持懷疑態度。曾代表賴昌星的加拿大律師馬塔斯（David Matas）表示，不相信中共當局會真正就案件展開調查。他認為，有關報導說賴昌星認罪只是「演戲」，絕非賴自願認罪。
「民主中國陣線」副主席盛雪猜測，賴昌星認罪出於中共授意，可能被逼迫，也可能有交換條件。
盛雪：「因為本身遠華走私案它是一個黑洞，它後面有重重疊疊的黑幕。賴昌星在海外的十二年當中，他一直說他是這個案子的代罪羔羊，實際上這個案子，是一個高層政治權力鬥爭的這樣一個性質，那麼今天賴昌星是在中共手上，賴昌星到底說了什麼，實際上外界也是永遠不可能知道真相的了。」
美國華府人權律師葉寧分析說，賴昌星的命運，從引渡回國那一天起就在中共當局的掌控之中，所謂的供認不諱，只不過是賴按照當局所要求的部分，依樣畫葫蘆的進行百分之百的認罪。
葉寧：「賴昌星怎麼樣認罪，這個罪認到什麼程度，咬出，供出多少人來，這就是一個很大的問題。 賴昌星認罪的寬度，廣度，可以涉及到很多很多現任的中共的決策當局，以及和他們有關係的上級下屬之間的這個政治命運的問題。 因為整個賴昌星案件不是一個法律案件，他就是一個政治案件。 」
「賴昌星案」涉及600多名大小官員，最高職務者為時任公安部副部長的李紀周。有媒體說，實際上「遠華案」牽扯到中共最高層。
盛雪：「他是不是會牽扯中共高層的內鬥，不取決於他，而取決於中共高層的布局。在當時他是跟很多高層有相當複雜而且深厚的關係，當時這些政治對手都會利用賴昌星，利用遠華案來打擊他們的政治對手。」
外界認為，案件即將進入司法程序，可望在明年初結案宣判，不會對明年秋季召開的中共十八大造成影響。
葉寧：「賴昌星案件現在結束，他表明十八大的政治格局基本塵埃落定，應該說十八大整個架構沒有太多懸念，如果沒有這個前提的話，賴昌星這個案件是不會結束的。」
新唐人記者陳漢、許旻、李若琳採訪報導。
[next]
Lai’s Guilty Plea: A Plot Set by the 18th National Congress
The investigation into China’s largest known corruption
scandal, "Yuan Hua smuggling case," is now closed.
The suspect, Lai Changxing, who was extradited from Canada
just six months ago, has confessed to smuggling and bribery.
Analysts believe that Lai’s guilty plea is only part of a script,
the timing the Chinese authorities announced
he verdict in this case illustrates the political struggle
involving the 「Yuan Hua smuggling case」 has subsided.
It is believed that the 18th National Congress political
framework has been basically established.
According to a Chinese state media report, Lai has now
been transferred to Xiamen prosecutors.
Knowing too well the corruption involving Chinese
high-level officials, Lai Changxing fled to Canada in 1999.
For 12 years, he has been trying to apply for political refugee
status in Canada.
Under the persistent pressure from the CCP, Canada
ultimately rejected his application for asylum.
On July 23, 2011, the Canadian government repatriated
Lai upon a promise that Lai Changxing would not be executed.
"0:29 Lai Changxing’s case involves many politics; Lai used to
work for the Chinese Ministry of State Security as a spy.
He held numerous confidential secrets involving the
highest level of the Party and the state leaders.
Theoretically, this case does not fall within the
scope of extradition.
Even though Chinese Government has assured no death penalty
to Lai, there is no guarantee that torture won’t be used."
People generally are skeptical about Lai’s guilty plea.
David Matas,
the Canadian lawyer who once represented Lai,
is skeptical of the Chinese authorities having investigated.
In his view, the confession reported by the media is
only an act, not really a voluntary plea.
Vice Chairman of Federation for a Democratic China, Sheng
Xue, suspects Lai’s pleading guilty was either instructed,
forced, or in exchange for something mandated by the CCP.
Sheng Xue: "0:02 The Yuanhua smuggling case itself
was a black hole embedded with hidden secrets.
Over the 12 years of staying overseas, he (Lai) has claimed
to be a scapegoat in this case.
In fact, this case is a high level political struggle.
Under the control of the CCP, exactly what Lai Changxing
has said will never be known. "
Human rights lawyer Ye Ning analyzes that the fate of Lai
Changxing has been controlled by CCP since his extradition.
The so-called confession is only a process according to the
authority’s plot.
Ye Ning: "5:00 How Lai plead guilty, the extent of his
confession, the number of people he would give out, that is a big problem.
The extent and the level Lai pleaded guilty can involve many,
many current decision-making authorities of the Chinese Communists,
as well as the political destiny of those relevant superiors
and subordinates.
Because Lai Changxing’s case is not a legal case,
it is a political case. "
"Lai Changxing case" involves more than 600 officials.
The highest position is Vice Minister of the Public Security, Li Jizhou.
Some media said, in fact, "Yuanhua case" involves the
highest level of the CCP.
Sheng Xue: "1:38 Whether or not it will involve the CCP’s
internal power does not depend on him,
but rather, on the layout of the high level CCP officials.
He was there with a lot of very complex and very strong
relationships with the high level.
Lai Changxing was used to combat their political opponents.」
It is speculated that the case will enter the judicial process
and to be closed early next year.
It shall not affect the 18th National Congress next autumn.
Ye Ning: "1:51 Lai Changxing’s case is now over.
It shows that the basic pattern of the 18th National Congress
has settled;
there is little doubt about the structure of the
18th National Congress.
Without this premise, Lai Changxing’s case
would not have ended."
Ye Ning said that the end of this case has delivered a
very important message to the world:
the CCP regime will have a smooth transition
during the 18th National Congress.
NTD reporters Chan Han, Hui Min and Li Ruilin
