《新年祝詞》
-- 魏京生
大家新年好！祝大家萬事如意，闔家安好。
實際上今年可能大家不如意事更多，包括中共的不如意之事也會比去年更多。所以祝大家都能化不如意為如意，設法解開不如意的枷鎖，把難關渡過去。
對國內的有錢人來說，經濟危機、財產縮水是不可避免的現實了。各家都有本難念的經，有錢人也不例外。雖然吃穿不愁，但經營上難免左支右絀。日子肯定不如已往那麼好過。大家可能都希望銀行多貸款，市場更興旺。如此則經濟才能復甦，大家的生意也才能有轉機。
但是看來這兩點都很難。銀行增發鈔票就是通貨膨脹，結果鈔票就進一步縮水。這對出口不一定有好處，反而會引來更強烈的貿易保護主義，使出口的阻力更大。對使用人民幣的市場有擴大的功能。但效果不會很大。
為什麼效果不會很大?這是因為人民幣市場上的大多數是受薪階級，中國的企業結構不會讓工人得到更多的工資，所以對擴大市場的作用會很有限。國內外的市場如果都不能擴大，甚至還會緊縮，那麼經濟蕭條就肯定會繼續深入發展。不但不會好轉，反而會變得更糟糕。經營企業的朋友們對此應該有充分的估計。
對窮人來說就更糟糕了。如果政府用凱恩斯主義的方法救那些陷入危機的企業，那就是通貨膨脹。窮人的收入本來就不高，通貨膨脹對窮人來說就是雪上加霜了。特別是收入低於平均水平的受薪階級，生活就會變得難以維持。現在看來這種可能性很大。因為國際市場已經收縮了很多，貿易保護主義又正在悄然興起。也就是說，國際市場還會進一步收縮。
如果政府不採取增發鈔票的方法擴大內需，就會有幾千萬返城的農民工回來以後找不到工作。這對政治上已經焦頭爛額的胡溫集團來說，是承受不了的壓力。所以他們如果不傻，肯定會用通貨膨脹擴大內需的方法，來安置一部分農民工的就業問題。結果是救了那些官僚、富人和農民工，卻苦了其他的窮人。除非政治和經濟的體制有真正的進步，否則很難解開這個套。
很多朋友，包括富人和窮人都關心國際市場能不能有所擴大，至少恢復到前幾年的水平。我可以負責任的告訴大家，乾脆別做這個夢了。從規律上看，遇到經濟危機，特別是全球性的經濟危機，貿易保護主義一定會抬頭。所有國家都會把保護自己國家的市場當作頭等大事。
我最近和歐美政治家們會談，也得到了這個印象。就是大家都在關心對外貿易平衡的問題，都注意到了外貿逆差對本國經濟的影響。就連老牌支持自由貿易的政治家都說：雖然我們黨的基本信念是自由貿易，但是現在。。。如何，如何。由此可見，強烈的貿易保護主義傾向是一股不可遏止的潮流。
面對這個現實，中國只有一條出路，就是擴大內需，擴大三十年來發育不良的國內市場。國內市場發育不良的根本原因是什麼呢？就是占人口大多數的受薪階級收入增長太慢，沒有和經濟發展同步增長。結果是一方面形成了中國的經濟發展主要依靠別人的市場；另一方面形成了利潤掌握在很小的一個階級手裡，造成貧富懸殊的政治不穩定局面。
這種「讓一部分人先富起來」的經濟政策，使得現在的經濟和政治都陷入了絕境。而這個絕境，不是一黨專政的政治結構能夠自我化解的。只有通過向人民負責的民主政治，才能夠產生照顧大多數人的社會主義經濟政策。少數人的政權當然只能為少數人的利益服務。
在沒有政治改革之前，民主運動採取了補救性的措施。也就是正在努力使西方國家在採取貿易保護主義政策的同時，把中國工人組織工會的權利，也就是結社自由的權利；和信息開放，也就是新聞自由的權利等等，寫進貿易保護的法案。以此強迫中共開放自治工會活動，提高工人的工資，從而擴大內需，緩和經濟危機。
從長遠看，只有工會運動發展了，受薪階級的收入才可能和經濟發展同步增長，也才能有一個正常合理的經濟結構。如果國內市場不能正常發育，經濟不穩定，富人也很容易破產。這也是富裕階層的長遠利益，而不僅僅是窮人有好處。所以西方成熟的資產階級，也擁護保障工人的利益，也要搞社會主義。
這是社會的共同利益。中國的資產階級也該學學人家，逐漸成熟起來。與其把財產放在別人的安全地帶，不如把自己的國家搞成安全地帶。
聆聽魏京生先生的相關錄音，請訪問：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2009/WeiJS090102forecast2009economy.mp3
（寫及錄音於2009年1月2日。自由亞洲電台播出。）
Greetings for the New Year of 2009
-- Wei Jingsheng
Greetings for the new year of 2009, I wish all go well with you and your family.
As a matter of fact, this year we may have more of less than satisfactory things, as does the Chinese Communist Party. So I wish that all of us could turn the dissatisfactory into satisfactory, to overcome the difficulties.
For the wealthy people in China, the economic crisis and shrinking of net worth will be a reality which could not have been avoided. The Chinese old saying: "Every family has a Buddhist scripture which is hard to read" is true for everyone, including the wealthy people. Although the wealthy class will have enough for food and clothing, business operations will be tough to cope with, and the days ahead will be challenging. People are likely wishing that the banks will give out more loans, thus creating a prosperous market with the recovery of the economy that will turn the business around for everyone.
However, as of now, both approaches are difficult. The release of more money by the banks will result in inflation, which causes further devaluation of the currency. This inflation is not guaranteed to be good for export, but will attract stronger trade protectionism and thus result in more resistance to Chinese exports. This may have a result of expansion of the markets which use RMB currency, but it will not be very effective.
Why it will not be very effective? Because most people in the market that use RMB are average workers. The Chinese business structure will not let workers get more salary or wages, so is will have limited effect in expanding this market. If markets both inside and outside China could not be expanded, and even shrink, then the economic depression will gone farther and deeper. Then the economy will not be able to turn around, but only get worse. So people who are running businesses should have a full evaluation of this situation.
The situation of the poor people will be even worse. If the Chinese government applies Keynesian economics to save those businesses which fall into the economic crisis, then there will be inflation. The poor people were already struggling with their low income, and the inflation will be a frost added to the snow. To the working class which has its income less than the average, their life will be hard to maintain. As of now, this is a likely possibility because the international market has already shrunk quite a lot and trade protectionism has being rising quietly. This means that the international market will shrink even more.
If the Chinese government does not expand the internal demand by the release of cash, then tens of millions of migrant workers will not be able to find their jobs when they return to the cities. This will be an unbearable pressure on the Hu-Wen clique which is already in a terrible fix politically. If they are not retarded, they will trade inflation to expand internal demand, in an effort to settle the employment problem of some migrant workers. The result will be that it save the beauricrats, wealthy people and these migrant workers, but makes the other poor people miserable. Unless there is real progress for the political and economic system in China, there lacks a true satisfactory solution for the ongoing problem.
Many friends, both rich and poor, are concerned whether the international market will be able to expand, or at least to resume to where it was a few years ago. I could tell people responsibly here that you should not have this kind of expectation. Historical patterns reveal that when there is an economic crisis, especially a global one, trade protectionism will come to play for sure. All the countries will treat their own market as the highest priority.
I have also gain this impression from my rounds of discussions with politicians in both Europe and America recently. People are all concerned of the trade balance issue, and all notice the influence of trade deficit to the economy of their own country. Even the politicians who have been supporting "free trade" for a long time will say: "although our party's basic principle is free trade, but now..." so and so. This reflects that a strong trade protectionism will be a trend which could not be stopped.
Facing this fact, China has only one solution, which is to expand its internal demand, to expand its internal market which has been malnourished over the last 30 years. What is the root reason for the malnutrition of the Chinese market? It is because the working class, which is the majority of the population, has very low growth of income lagging behind the economic growth. The result is that, on the one hand Chinese economic development has been mainly depending on others' markets; on the other hand the profit has been controlled by a very small class, thus produced a political instability due to the extreme disparity between the rich and the poor.
This kind of economic policy "let some people to get rich first" has produced the current hopeless situation both economically and politically. But the one-party dictatorial political structure is not capable of dissolving this hopeless situation itself. Only a democratic politics which is responsible to the people, could produce a true socialist economic policy which takes care of the majority. A government of the very few, will of course serve for the benefit of the very few only.
Before this political reform, the Chinese democracy movement has taken remedy measures. As the Western countries start to apply trade protectionism, we urged them to include Chinese workers' union rights, which as part of the right of association, information openness, and a free press into trade protection measures. We want to use these ideas to force the Chinese Communist Party to permit workers' unionization, to increase workers' pay, and thus to expand the internal demand and ease up the economic crisis.
For the long term, only when there is development of the union movement will the working class' income grow in the same face as of the economy, thus creating a normal and reasonable economic structure. If the Chinese market could not grow normally, and its economy is unstable, the rich people could go bankrupt easily. So a normal and reasonable economic structure is not just good for the poor people, but also good for the long-term benefit of the wealthy. So mature capitalists in the Western countries also agree to protect workers' rights and socialism. This is the common interest of the whole society. The capitalists of China should learn from the others and get mature. If you keep thinking of put your wealth in the safe territory of the others, why do not you try to turn your own country into a safe territory?
To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2009/WeiJS090102forecast2009economy.mp3
(Written and recorded on January 2, 2009. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
This is a message from WeiJingSheng.org
The Wei Jingsheng Foundation and the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition are dedicated to the promotion of human rights and democratization in China. We appreciate your assistance and help in any means. We pledge solidarity to all who struggle for human rights and democratic governance on this planet.
You are welcome to use or distribute this release. However, please credit with this foundation and its website at: www.weijingsheng.org
Although we are unable to afford to pay royalty fees at this time, we are seeking your contribution as well. You may send your articles, comments and opinions to: [email protected]. Please remember, only in text files, not in attachments.
For website issues and suggestions, you may contact our professional staff and web master at: [email protected]
To find out more about us, please also visit our websites at:
www.WeiJingSheng.org and www.ChinaLaborUnion.org
for news and information for Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition and human rights and democracy movement as whole, especially our Chinese Labor Union Base.
You may contact Ciping Huang at: [email protected] or
Wei Jingsheng Foundation office at: 1-202-543-1538 Fax: 1-202-543-1539
Wei Jingsheng Foundation's address is:
415 East Capitol Street, SE, Suite 2, Washington, DC 20003-3810, USA
Its postal address is:
Wei Jingsheng Foundation, P. O. Box 15449, Washington, DC 20003, USA
You are receiving this message because you had previous shown your interest in learning more about Mr. Wei Jingsheng and the Chinese Democratic Movement. To be removed from the list, simply reply this message and use "unsubscribe" as the Subject. Please allow us a few days to process your request.
