究竟是誰在主導中共外交決策？Dispute with Japan highlights China's foreign-policy power struggle
儘管中日外交危機遠未落幕，美國媒體卻已發表文章開始對危機過程中北京的外交決策進行總結和分析。
據華盛頓郵報2010年9月24日的長篇新聞分析，近期就釣魚島主權所爆發的中日衝突「集中暴露出中國外交決策過程中不同利益集團的激烈角逐」。該文作者為 「華盛頓郵報」著名專欄作家約翰•波姆福萊特(John Pomfret)。文章已經被許多報章轉載，以下是其概要譯文。
中日就釣魚島主權新一輪的對峙、以及在這一過程中北京當局的表現，令國際社會滿腹狐疑：究竟是誰在主導中國的外交決策？
從過去四周的中日關係看，是中國的許多利益集團而不僅僅是中國外交部在北京的外交決策中施加影響。在這些勢力中，新一代軍方將領、中共和國務院所屬部門、國營企業甚至官方媒體，都在試圖就對外關係做出界定。隨著中國經濟的巨大發展，這些勢力的頭面人物正以一種前所未有的能量影響中國外交。
於是，從華盛頓到東京，人們都在感嘆與這些利益集團及其外交政策觀抗衡是何等困難。正如一位美國外交官聲稱，「現在我們應對的是北京的各個部委，而不單單是一個外交部，關係變得錯綜複雜」。另一位日本外交官則說，「我們也是一樣。我們常常弄不清，在中國對外關係中到底是誰在發號施令」。
日本政治觀察家和駐北京外交官指出，就中日在爭議海域所發生的矛盾，過去中國外交部的態度都比較溫和，從來沒有像這次這樣強硬，因為這次是中國軍方在推波助瀾。
其他的一些事例，諸如中國核工業集團以及中化總公司等大型國有企業在巴基斯坦核電站工程和對伊朗石油貿易等問題上的表現，也凸現利益集團在中國對外關係中的實際影響。
這些互相競爭的利益集團造成了中國外交思維的邏輯混亂，而這一現象的確事出有因。胡錦濤在中共總書記這個位子上已經坐了八年，然而外界至今仍不知道他是否真正握有實權。在出任中共總書記之後，他的前任江澤民又繼續擔任了兩年中央軍委主席。儘管胡錦濤目前是中共中央政治局九人常委的首領，但政治局九人常委中至少有五人是江派成員。上海復旦大學美國研究中心的一位專家說，這一情勢造成中共政府軟弱無力，各種政治勢力因此而不受約束。
與此同時，中國外交部的外交決策影響力又在不斷下降。主管對外關係的國務委員戴秉國目前被認為是「中國外交政策的掌門人」，不過他根本無緣中共中央二十五人政治局。在政治局中，軍方占有兩個席位，國營企業也至少擁有一席之地。
西方媒體還注意到，解放軍將領最近幾個月在與外交政策相關的問題上不斷發表評論，這些評論試圖就大陸周邊海域的利益做出界定，比較著名的是解放軍副總參謀長馬曉天將軍對美韓軍演的猛烈抨擊。
這種解放軍將領介入外交事務的情形甚至引起外交部的不滿。前駐法國大使、現任全國政協外事委員會副主任和外交學院院長的吳建民對媒體表示，「看到解放軍的將軍公開就對外政策發表評論，使我很吃驚」；「可這就是中國的現實」。他呼籲建立「思想庫」用於協助中南海進行外交決策。清華大學的一位教授則進一步說， 「軍人雖不代表國家，軍隊高級將領的言論卻會造成重大國際影響」。
此外，中共中央宣傳部和官方媒體在此次中日外交危機中，多少都扮演了影響北京對日外交的角色。
阿波羅網編者註：軍方和宣傳系統都在江系的影響中。
Dispute with Japan highlights China's foreign-policy power struggle
儘管中日外交危機遠未落幕，美國媒體卻已發表文章開始對危機過程中北京的外交決策進行總結和分析。
據華盛頓郵報2010年9月24日的長篇新聞分析，近期就釣魚島主權所爆發的中日衝突「集中暴露出中國外交決策過程中不同利益集團的激烈角逐」。該文作者為 「華盛頓郵報」著名專欄作家約翰•波姆福萊特(John Pomfret)。文章已經被許多報章轉載，以下是其概要譯文。
中日就釣魚島主權新一輪的對峙、以及在這一過程中北京當局的表現，令國際社會滿腹狐疑：究竟是誰在主導中國的外交決策？
從過去四周的中日關係看，是中國的許多利益集團而不僅僅是中國外交部在北京的外交決策中施加影響。在這些勢力中，新一代軍方將領、中共和國務院所屬部門、國營企業甚至官方媒體，都在試圖就對外關係做出界定。隨著中國經濟的巨大發展，這些勢力的頭面人物正以一種前所未有的能量影響中國外交。
於是，從華盛頓到東京，人們都在感嘆與這些利益集團及其外交政策觀抗衡是何等困難。正如一位美國外交官聲稱，「現在我們應對的是北京的各個部委，而不單單是一個外交部，關係變得錯綜複雜」。另一位日本外交官則說，「我們也是一樣。我們常常弄不清，在中國對外關係中到底是誰在發號施令」。
日本政治觀察家和駐北京外交官指出，就中日在爭議海域所發生的矛盾，過去中國外交部的態度都比較溫和，從來沒有像這次這樣強硬，因為這次是中國軍方在推波助瀾。
其他的一些事例，諸如中國核工業集團以及中化總公司等大型國有企業在巴基斯坦核電站工程和對伊朗石油貿易等問題上的表現，也凸現利益集團在中國對外關係中的實際影響。
這些互相競爭的利益集團造成了中國外交思維的邏輯混亂，而這一現象的確事出有因。胡錦濤在中共總書記這個位子上已經坐了八年，然而外界至今仍不知道他是否真正握有實權。在出任中共總書記之後，他的前任江澤民又繼續擔任了兩年中央軍委主席。儘管胡錦濤目前是中共中央政治局九人常委的首領，但政治局九人常委中至少有五人是江派成員。上海復旦大學美國研究中心的一位專家說，這一情勢造成中共政府軟弱無力，各種政治勢力因此而不受約束。
與此同時，中國外交部的外交決策影響力又在不斷下降。主管對外關係的國務委員戴秉國目前被認為是「中國外交政策的掌門人」，不過他根本無緣中共中央二十五人政治局。在政治局中，軍方占有兩個席位，國營企業也至少擁有一席之地。
西方媒體還注意到，解放軍將領最近幾個月在與外交政策相關的問題上不斷發表評論，這些評論試圖就大陸周邊海域的利益做出界定，比較著名的是解放軍副總參謀長馬曉天將軍對美韓軍演的猛烈抨擊。
這種解放軍將領介入外交事務的情形甚至引起外交部的不滿。前駐法國大使、現任全國政協外事委員會副主任和外交學院院長的吳建民對媒體表示，「看到解放軍的將軍公開就對外政策發表評論，使我很吃驚」；「可這就是中國的現實」。他呼籲建立「思想庫」用於協助中南海進行外交決策。清華大學的一位教授則進一步說， 「軍人雖不代表國家，軍隊高級將領的言論卻會造成重大國際影響」。
此外，中共中央宣傳部和官方媒體在此次中日外交危機中，多少都扮演了影響北京對日外交的角色。
阿波羅網編者註：軍方和宣傳系統都在江系的影響中。
Dispute with Japan highlights China's foreign-policy power struggle
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China's government cancels high-level talks with Japan, following Japan's announcement that it will hold a Chinese fishing boat captain for another ten days.
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By John Pomfret
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, September 24, 2010; 7:43 AM
The increasingly bitter dispute between China and Japan over a small group of islands in the Pacific is heightening concerns in capitals across the globe over who controls China's foreign policy.
A new generation of officials in the military, key government ministries and state-owned companies has begun to define how China deals with the rest of the world. Emboldened by China's economic expansion, these officials are taking advantage of a weakened leadership at the top of the Communist Party to assert their interests in ways that would have been impossible even a decade ago.
It used to be that Chinese officials complained about the Byzantine decision-making process in the United States. Today, from Washington to Tokyo, the talk is about how difficult it is to contend with the explosion of special interests shaping China's worldview.
"Now we have to deal across agencies and departments and ministries," said a U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss ties with China. "The relationship is extraordinarily complex."
Said a senior Japanese diplomat: "We, too, are often confused about China's intentions and who is calling the shots."
Japanese officials said the People's Liberation Army is responsible for the friction over the disputed island chain, known as the Senkakus in Japan and the Diaoyu islands in China. In early September, Japan's coast guard detained the captain of a Chinese fishing trawler, accusing him of ramming a Japanese coast guard vessel. In previous crises, China's Foreign Ministry has acted as a calming influence, but this time, Japanese diplomats said, the military led the charge.
China responded by demanding the captain's release, suspending talks, canceling the visits of Japanese schoolchildren and on Thursday arresting four Japanese who allegedly were taking photographs near a Chinese military installation.
In an apparent effort to defuse the escalating tensions, Japan announced Friday that it would release the Chinese captain.
Washington signaled to Beijing on Thursday that it would back Japan in the territorial dispute. Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters: "Obviously we're very, very strongly in support of . . . our ally in that region, Japan."
Other examples
The island dispute is the latest instance of players other than the party's central leadership driving China's engagement with the outside world.
Throughout this year, officials from the Ministry of Commerce, who represent China's exporters, have lobbied vociferously against revaluing China's currency, the yuan, despite calls to the contrary from the People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Finance.
In Iran, China's state-owned oil companies are pushing to do more business, even though Beijing backed enhanced U.N. sanctions against Tehran because of its alleged nuclear weapons program. The China National Offshore Oil Co. is in talks to ramp up its investment in the massive Azadegan oil field just as Japanese companies are backing out, senior diplomatic sources said. The move by CNOOC would have the effect of "gutting" the new sanctions, one diplomat said. U.S. officials have stressed to China that they do not want to see China's oil companies "filling in" as other oil companies leave, a senior U.S. official said.
China's main nuclear power corporation wants to build a one-gigawatt nuclear power plant in Pakistan even though it appears to be a violation of international guidelines forbidding nuclear exports to countries that have not signed onto the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or do not have international safeguards on reactors. Pakistan has not signed the treaty.
"We have never had this situation before," said Huang Ping, the director of the Institute for American Studies at China's Academy of Social Sciences. "And it is troubling. We need more coordination among all agencies, including the military."
U.S. reaction
The U.S. government is trying to adapt to this new China with a mixture of honey and vinegar.
In July, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton talked tough with China about its claims to the whole of the South China Sea, joining with Vietnam and 10 other Southeast Asian nations to criticize China's recent aggressive behavior in that strategic waterway.
That message - that China should ensure freedom of the seas and negotiate disputed claims peacefully - is expected to be reinforced Friday when President Obama meets in New York with leaders from Southeast Asian nations. Several U.S. officials said the People's Liberation Army and China's state-owned oil companies had been driving China's more forceful claims to the sea.
U.S. officials have also moved to establish more personal connections with Chinese officials. Last month, Deputy Secretary of State James B. Steinberg, the second-ranking U.S. diplomat, spent a full day with Cui Tiankai, one of 12 assistant Chinese foreign ministers, taking him to the Inn at Little Washington, a restaurant in Virginia. The entourage proceeded to a 30-acre farm belonging to a senior State Department official, where Cui took a ride on a tractor. And in an attempt to engage more Chinese stakeholders than in the past, Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner led the largest-ever delegation of U.S. officials to Beijing in May.
Several factors account for the rise of competing interests. President Hu Jintao has led the Communist Party for eight years, but it is not clear that he has ever been fully in control. After Hu took power in 2002, his predecessor, Jiang Zemin, stayed on as chief of China's military for two years. And Hu was the top man in a nine-member Politburo standing committee, but at least five of the seats were occupied by Jiang's allies.
"This is a time when the Chinese government is weak," said Shen Dingli, the executive dean of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. "As a result, different interest groups have been unleashed in a less coordinated and less centralized way."
Simultaneously, the influence of China's Foreign Ministry is waning. Dai Bingguo, the current foreign policy supremo has no seat on the powerful 25-member Politburo; the military has two, and the state-owned sector has at least one.
While there is competition across ministries in China, U.S. officials have focused on the gap between the civilian side of the government and the People's Liberation Army.
In recent months, military officers have begun to air their views on foreign policy matters, seeking to define China's interests in the seas around the country.
Gen. Ma Xiaotian, deputy chief of the army's general staff, has blasted the United States for its involvement in the South China Sea. And in August, Maj. Gen. Luo Yuan lashed out at the United States for reportedly planning to deploy the aircraft carrier USS George Washington in the Yellow Sea for joint exercises with South Korea. (The George Washington was subsequently sent to the Sea of Japan, farther from China.)
Countering military
China's government cancels high-level talks with Japan, following Japan's announcement that it will hold a Chinese fishing boat captain for another ten days.
Your browser's settings may be preventing you from commenting on and viewing comments about this item. See instructions for fixing the problem.
Discussion Policy CLOSEComments that include profanity or personal attacks or other inappropriate comments or material will be removed from the site. Additionally, entries that are unsigned or contain "signatures" by someone other than the actual author will be removed. Finally, we will take steps to block users who violate any of our posting standards, terms of use or privacy policies or any other policies governing this site. Please review the full rules governing commentaries and discussions. You are fully responsible for the content that you post.
Not all of the military statements went over well in China. In recent weeks, the Foreign Ministry has begun to push back against the military. In recent interviews in Beijing, officials and senior advisers to the government excoriated the military for making policy pronouncements.
"For me, it is surprising that I'm seeing a general from the People's Liberation Army making a public statement regarding foreign policy, but this is China today," said Wu Jianmin, a former ambassador who helps run a think tank and advises China's leadership on foreign policy.
"This is not something the military should do," said Chu Shulong, professor of international relations at Tsinghua University. "These people don't represent the government, but it creates international repercussions when they speak out."
China's media is another factor in the fracturing of China's foreign policy. Another foreign policy player, the Ministry of Propaganda, has allowed the state-run press to criticize foreign governments as a way to bolster the Communist Party's position at home. As a result, China's newer publications, such as the mass-circulation Global Times, cover international affairs - in particular relations with the United States and Japan - with all the verve that People magazine pours into the adventures of Paris Hilton.
"We are not happy about many of the stories published today," Wu said. "We Foreign Ministry people have told them you shouldn't do that, but they say, 'So what? Let the Americans hear a different voice.' "
Shen, the American studies scholar, said some in China's leadership may support the idea of sending mixed messages on foreign policy as a way of testing the United States or Japan.
"The civilian government may think it does no harm," he said. "After all, if they succeed, it may advance China's interests."
China's government cancels high-level talks with Japan, following Japan's announcement that it will hold a Chinese fishing boat captain for another ten days.
Your browser's settings may be preventing you from commenting on and viewing comments about this item. See instructions for fixing the problem.
Discussion Policy CLOSEComments that include profanity or personal attacks or other inappropriate comments or material will be removed from the site. Additionally, entries that are unsigned or contain "signatures" by someone other than the actual author will be removed. Finally, we will take steps to block users who violate any of our posting standards, terms of use or privacy policies or any other policies governing this site. Please review the full rules governing commentaries and discussions. You are fully responsible for the content that you post.
By John Pomfret
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, September 24, 2010; 7:43 AM
The increasingly bitter dispute between China and Japan over a small group of islands in the Pacific is heightening concerns in capitals across the globe over who controls China's foreign policy.
A new generation of officials in the military, key government ministries and state-owned companies has begun to define how China deals with the rest of the world. Emboldened by China's economic expansion, these officials are taking advantage of a weakened leadership at the top of the Communist Party to assert their interests in ways that would have been impossible even a decade ago.
It used to be that Chinese officials complained about the Byzantine decision-making process in the United States. Today, from Washington to Tokyo, the talk is about how difficult it is to contend with the explosion of special interests shaping China's worldview.
"Now we have to deal across agencies and departments and ministries," said a U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss ties with China. "The relationship is extraordinarily complex."
Said a senior Japanese diplomat: "We, too, are often confused about China's intentions and who is calling the shots."
Japanese officials said the People's Liberation Army is responsible for the friction over the disputed island chain, known as the Senkakus in Japan and the Diaoyu islands in China. In early September, Japan's coast guard detained the captain of a Chinese fishing trawler, accusing him of ramming a Japanese coast guard vessel. In previous crises, China's Foreign Ministry has acted as a calming influence, but this time, Japanese diplomats said, the military led the charge.
China responded by demanding the captain's release, suspending talks, canceling the visits of Japanese schoolchildren and on Thursday arresting four Japanese who allegedly were taking photographs near a Chinese military installation.
In an apparent effort to defuse the escalating tensions, Japan announced Friday that it would release the Chinese captain.
Washington signaled to Beijing on Thursday that it would back Japan in the territorial dispute. Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters: "Obviously we're very, very strongly in support of . . . our ally in that region, Japan."
Other examples
The island dispute is the latest instance of players other than the party's central leadership driving China's engagement with the outside world.
Throughout this year, officials from the Ministry of Commerce, who represent China's exporters, have lobbied vociferously against revaluing China's currency, the yuan, despite calls to the contrary from the People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Finance.
In Iran, China's state-owned oil companies are pushing to do more business, even though Beijing backed enhanced U.N. sanctions against Tehran because of its alleged nuclear weapons program. The China National Offshore Oil Co. is in talks to ramp up its investment in the massive Azadegan oil field just as Japanese companies are backing out, senior diplomatic sources said. The move by CNOOC would have the effect of "gutting" the new sanctions, one diplomat said. U.S. officials have stressed to China that they do not want to see China's oil companies "filling in" as other oil companies leave, a senior U.S. official said.
China's main nuclear power corporation wants to build a one-gigawatt nuclear power plant in Pakistan even though it appears to be a violation of international guidelines forbidding nuclear exports to countries that have not signed onto the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or do not have international safeguards on reactors. Pakistan has not signed the treaty.
"We have never had this situation before," said Huang Ping, the director of the Institute for American Studies at China's Academy of Social Sciences. "And it is troubling. We need more coordination among all agencies, including the military."
U.S. reaction
The U.S. government is trying to adapt to this new China with a mixture of honey and vinegar.
In July, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton talked tough with China about its claims to the whole of the South China Sea, joining with Vietnam and 10 other Southeast Asian nations to criticize China's recent aggressive behavior in that strategic waterway.
That message - that China should ensure freedom of the seas and negotiate disputed claims peacefully - is expected to be reinforced Friday when President Obama meets in New York with leaders from Southeast Asian nations. Several U.S. officials said the People's Liberation Army and China's state-owned oil companies had been driving China's more forceful claims to the sea.
U.S. officials have also moved to establish more personal connections with Chinese officials. Last month, Deputy Secretary of State James B. Steinberg, the second-ranking U.S. diplomat, spent a full day with Cui Tiankai, one of 12 assistant Chinese foreign ministers, taking him to the Inn at Little Washington, a restaurant in Virginia. The entourage proceeded to a 30-acre farm belonging to a senior State Department official, where Cui took a ride on a tractor. And in an attempt to engage more Chinese stakeholders than in the past, Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner led the largest-ever delegation of U.S. officials to Beijing in May.
Several factors account for the rise of competing interests. President Hu Jintao has led the Communist Party for eight years, but it is not clear that he has ever been fully in control. After Hu took power in 2002, his predecessor, Jiang Zemin, stayed on as chief of China's military for two years. And Hu was the top man in a nine-member Politburo standing committee, but at least five of the seats were occupied by Jiang's allies.
"This is a time when the Chinese government is weak," said Shen Dingli, the executive dean of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. "As a result, different interest groups have been unleashed in a less coordinated and less centralized way."
Simultaneously, the influence of China's Foreign Ministry is waning. Dai Bingguo, the current foreign policy supremo has no seat on the powerful 25-member Politburo; the military has two, and the state-owned sector has at least one.
While there is competition across ministries in China, U.S. officials have focused on the gap between the civilian side of the government and the People's Liberation Army.
In recent months, military officers have begun to air their views on foreign policy matters, seeking to define China's interests in the seas around the country.
Gen. Ma Xiaotian, deputy chief of the army's general staff, has blasted the United States for its involvement in the South China Sea. And in August, Maj. Gen. Luo Yuan lashed out at the United States for reportedly planning to deploy the aircraft carrier USS George Washington in the Yellow Sea for joint exercises with South Korea. (The George Washington was subsequently sent to the Sea of Japan, farther from China.)
Countering military
China's government cancels high-level talks with Japan, following Japan's announcement that it will hold a Chinese fishing boat captain for another ten days.
Your browser's settings may be preventing you from commenting on and viewing comments about this item. See instructions for fixing the problem.
Discussion Policy CLOSEComments that include profanity or personal attacks or other inappropriate comments or material will be removed from the site. Additionally, entries that are unsigned or contain "signatures" by someone other than the actual author will be removed. Finally, we will take steps to block users who violate any of our posting standards, terms of use or privacy policies or any other policies governing this site. Please review the full rules governing commentaries and discussions. You are fully responsible for the content that you post.
Not all of the military statements went over well in China. In recent weeks, the Foreign Ministry has begun to push back against the military. In recent interviews in Beijing, officials and senior advisers to the government excoriated the military for making policy pronouncements.
"For me, it is surprising that I'm seeing a general from the People's Liberation Army making a public statement regarding foreign policy, but this is China today," said Wu Jianmin, a former ambassador who helps run a think tank and advises China's leadership on foreign policy.
"This is not something the military should do," said Chu Shulong, professor of international relations at Tsinghua University. "These people don't represent the government, but it creates international repercussions when they speak out."
China's media is another factor in the fracturing of China's foreign policy. Another foreign policy player, the Ministry of Propaganda, has allowed the state-run press to criticize foreign governments as a way to bolster the Communist Party's position at home. As a result, China's newer publications, such as the mass-circulation Global Times, cover international affairs - in particular relations with the United States and Japan - with all the verve that People magazine pours into the adventures of Paris Hilton.
"We are not happy about many of the stories published today," Wu said. "We Foreign Ministry people have told them you shouldn't do that, but they say, 'So what? Let the Americans hear a different voice.' "
Shen, the American studies scholar, said some in China's leadership may support the idea of sending mixed messages on foreign policy as a way of testing the United States or Japan.
"The civilian government may think it does no harm," he said. "After all, if they succeed, it may advance China's interests."
