在網上看到茅于軾先生的微博。評論中央電視台的歷史節目，叫做《中蘇外交檔案解密》。其中選擇性的解密了中蘇早期外交的一些內容，對共產黨兄弟之間的爾虞我詐有生動的描述。讓茅先生特別憤恨的是，史達林和金日成合夥欺騙了中共。把中國拖進了朝鮮戰爭的泥潭，白白死了一百多萬人。真可謂是罪惡滔天。
但網友們的評論主要不在這一點上。它揭示了這個系列節目出台的背景。正在朝鮮因為核子試爆，遭受包括中美兩國在內的聯合國制裁的時候。這個有點兒不符合中共宣傳規律的系列節目的出台，有向國際社會解釋中國困難的嫌疑。似乎是想說明中朝關係和當年的中蘇關係差不多。中國也無法控制朝鮮這個小流氓。
如果確實有解釋中朝關係的意圖，那麼這個解釋肯定是欺詐。中共政府不但在國內沒什麼信用，在國際上的信用也不怎麼樣。如果直接去解釋，人家多半不信。怎麼辦呢?好在美國的分析家們一般都不太了解中國，更不了解北韓。那就迂迴一下，讓他們自己分析出結果。達到欺詐的目的。
為什麼說是欺詐呢?這是因為中蘇關係和中朝關係有根本的不同。
第一.規格不同。中蘇關係是兩個大國之間的關係。蘇聯可以欺騙中國達到他自己的目的;但不可能強迫中國達到目的。中蘇之間除了爾虞我詐之外，主要是平等的作交易。蘇聯大規模援助中國，是以中國割讓外蒙古和一邊倒向蘇聯的外交政策為條件的。雙方都認為是史達林占了便宜，而不是中國占了便宜。
第二.作用不同。蘇聯除了欺騙中國在朝鮮和美國打了一仗之外，再也不可能指使中國按他的意圖惹是生非。而朝鮮作為接受中國巨額援助的小兄弟，不得不為中國的戰略目的惹是生非。即使違背它自己的利益也在所不惜。雖然私下裡肯定怨恨中國。但小兄弟就是小兄弟，大哥可以隨時卡住你的脖子。這一點和當年的中蘇關係完全不同。
第三.環境不同。當年的中國在周邊沒有直接威脅它的對手。逃到台灣的國民黨軍隊不對中共政權構成威脅，到今天也是如此。而韓國的國力和軍隊都強於北韓;還有美軍的幫助。而且韓國還有一個別人沒有的部級單位叫做統一部。隨時做出吃掉北韓的姿態。北韓如果放棄與中共的聯盟就等於自殺。
在這樣的雙方態勢下。中國如果不打算支持一個和自己利益不同的小流氓，他完全有能力強迫北韓不再惹是生非。像現在這樣不去強制性的要求北韓停止惹是生非，只能說明中共政府仍然像過去一樣。希望，或者說需要北韓成為中國外交戰略的馬前卒，繼續以北韓的惹是生非來和西方作交易。
但這可能嗎?過去可能。以胡錦濤那種糊裡糊塗的政治輔導員的思維，對堅持專制不後退的北韓有相當的信任感。而且當時的統治者金正日也還算明智，對內吹吹牛說說獨立自主可以。對外則適可而止，不會真的和中共翻臉。重大事情還是聽中共的暗中指揮。
現在的習近平為首的領導集團，不再是意識形態為主的糊塗蛋了。他們都親身體驗過專制的殘酷無情;也都看見過共產黨兄弟的爾虞我詐。除非利益相關，否則對共產黨小兄弟不會心慈手軟。而金正恩卻把他小時候所看見的獨立自主的吹噓當了真。現在決心要把他父親和祖父沒完成的事業繼續下去。看上去真的要和中共翻臉;而且擺出姿態要和中共玩兒美國牌。
美國人願不願意被這個小流氓涮著玩兒，現在還不知道。中共則已經在聯合國支持了制裁北韓的議案。翻臉的姿態相當明顯。但明顯力度不夠，或者說還保有讓金正恩回頭是岸的幻想。也就是說習近平還希望繼續使用這個小流氓，給東亞的安全製造麻煩。但是金正恩顯然認為他在大國之間搞平衡的策略一定能成功。如果美國接過了金正恩的橄欖枝，習近平的幻想就只能很尷尬的破滅了。
但是美國能夠控制北韓這個寡廉鮮恥沒有信用的小人嗎?美國人從來都很自信，而且經常比較短視。還有韓國的因素在其中起作用。這就註定無法控制這個流氓成性的小兄弟。美國如果從中國手裡接過這個流氓國家，它就會成為東亞安全的禍根。而中共仍然有辦法強迫這個小流氓在必要的時候聽話。
所以不要相信北韓會像當年的中國一樣和大國翻臉。他沒有那個底氣。與其美國花了冤枉錢還是不能控制這個小流氓。不如讓中國負這個責任。中國除了可以切斷援助促使金正恩垮台之外，還可以用平定內亂的藉口出兵朝鮮。無論金小胖聰明還是糊塗，中共都有很多辦法制服他。不能讓中共這麼輕鬆的推卸了責任。
以韓國人的糊塗和美國人的軟弱。看來朝鮮半島的統一還是遙遙無期的。如果韓國人只論親情而不論是非;不支持人民推翻獨裁專制的北韓共產黨。就是把統一的口號喊得再響，也只能是一種虛偽的政治秀。
English translation is in next page
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Wei Jingsheng
The Comparison between Sino-Soviet Relations and the China-DPRK Relations I read the micro-blogs by Mr. Mao Yushi online where he commented on the CCTV historic program called"Unlock the Secret of the Sino-Soviet Diplomatic Archives". The program selectively unlocked some contents from the early era of the Sino-Soviet diplomatic relations, with vivid descriptions of intrigues between the brothers of the Communist Parties. What made Mr. Mao in particular resentful was that Stalin and Kim Il Sung joined hands to deceive the Chinese Communist Party. They dragged China into the quagmire of the Korean War, which wasted the lives of more than one million people. That was a heinous crime. But netizens' comments mainly were not on this. Instead, they noticed the background for the introduction of this series: it is right at the time when North Korea(DPRK) is subject to UN sanctions approved by both the USA and China due to its nuclear test. This"coincidence" is a bit out of line with the typical routine of the introduction of a TV series that usually meets the Chinese Communist Party's propaganda effort. It could be suspected this TV series is being used to explain China's difficult position to the international society-- as its effort to illustrate that the China-DPRK relation is pretty much the same as the Sino-Soviet relation back then, that China could not control this little rogue of North Korea. If indeed there is the intention to use this program to illustrate the China-DPRK relations, then this explanation is certainly fraudulent. The Chinese Communist government does not have credit within China, nor has it much credit internationally. If it tries to explain relations so directly, the others would not believe it. So what to do? Fortunately, the analysts in the USA mostly do not know China that well, even less so North Korea. So by making this roundabout, they might to make their own analysis, thus achieving the purpose of the fraud. Why is this fraud? It is because there are fundamental differences between the Sino-Soviet relations and the China-DPRK relations. The first is their different dimensions. The Sino-Soviet relation was the relationship between two big countries. The Soviet Union may have been able to reach its goal through deceiving China, but not through forcing China. Besides the intrigue, exchange in equality was the main part of the Sino-USSR relationship. The large-scale aid from the Soviet Union to China was on the condition that China ceded Outer Mongolia and chose a foreign policy that was one-sided to the Soviet Union. Both considered Stalin had the advantage, rather than China. The second difference is their different roles. After deceiving China to fight against the USA in North Korea, the Soviets could no longer to instigate China to stir up trouble according to Soviet intention. However, as a little brother that receives massive aid from China, North Korea has to stir up trouble whenever the Chinese Party wants, even when against its own interests at its own expense. Although privately it certainly resents China, a little brother can only be in the role of a little brother, because the big brother could strangle his neck anytime. This is totally different that the previous Sino-Soviet relationship. The third difference is the environment. Back then there was no opponent in the peripheral region to China that directly threatened China. Even the Kuomintang Army that had fled to Taiwan did not pose a threat to the Chinese Communist regime. That is true to this day. But both the national strength and the army of South Korea are now far stronger than North Korea, especially with the help of the U.S. military. Further, there is a ministerial level department in South Korea that others do not have; the Ministry of Unification. This is in a gesture that is ready to swallow the North at any time. So if North Korea abandons its alliance with the Chinese Communists, it is equal to suicide. Under these circumstances, if the Chinese government does not have the intention to support a little rogue that has different interests, it has the entire ability to compel North Korea not to stir up any more trouble. However, right now it is not forcefully requiring North Korea to stop making trouble, so it only illustrates that the Chinese government is still where it was in the past-- what it hopes or needs North Korea to be is a pawn of the Chinese diplomatic strategy: using it to continuously stir up trouble to make a deal with the West. But is this possible? These conditions might be in the past. With the muddled thinking of a political counselor, Hu Jintao had quite a sense of trust to North Korea that carried its autocracy without retreating backwards. Also, then ruler Kim Jong-Il was fairly wise-- he would give bragging talk of independence domestically, but be more moderate externally and not allow fallout with the Chinese Communists. On important issues, Kim Jong-Il would still listen to the covert command of the Chinese Communist Party. But the new Chinese leadership headed by Xi Jinping is no longer ideology based Dopey. They have all personally experienced the ruthless autocracy, as well as have seen the intrigues of the Communist brothers. They would not be relenting to their little brother of the Communist Party unless they are the stakeholders. However, Kim Jong-Un treats the independent boast he saw when he was a kid as true, and now he is determined to continue what his father and grandfather did not accomplish. It seems that he is really ready for a fallout with the Chinese Communists, and posturing with Communist China to play the American card. As of now, it is unknown if the Americans are willing to be a toy for this little rogue. But Communist China has already supported the resolution of sanctions against North Korea in the United Nations, with a strong gesture of falling out. However, obviously it has not given a powerful strike; it still holds the illusion that Kim Jong-Un will turn around. In other words, Xi Jinping still hopes to continuously use the little rogue to make trouble for the security in East Asia. But apparently, Kim Jong-Un thinks that his strategy to seek a balance between the major powers will be successful. If the United States took the olive branch from Kim Jong-Un, Xi Jinping's illusion will be awkwardly burst. But could the United States be able to control a shameless villain without credit such as North Korea? Americans have always been confident, and often been relatively shortsighted. There is also the factor of South Korea at work. It is destined to be unable to control this little brother that is used to being the rogue. If the United States took over this rogue state from the hands of China, it will become the bane of East Asian security. The Chinese Communists still have a way to force this little rogue to obey when necessary. So do not believe that North Korea will fall out with a big country the way China did with the Soviets back then. North Korea is not that emboldened. Instead of Americans wrongfully spending money yet unable to control this little rogue, it is better to have China to carry this responsibility. Not only could China cut its aid to promote Kim Jong-Un's downfall, it also could sent troops to North Korea in the pretext of suppressing internal insurrection. Regardless whether little chubby Kim is smart or confused, Communist China has a lot of ways to subdue him. One should not let Communist China to shirk its responsibility so easily. It appears that the unification of the Korean Peninsula is not in the foreseeable future due to the confused South Koreans and weak Americans. If the South Koreans only care about family ties instead of distinguishing right from wrong, if South Korea does not support the people to overthrow the dictatorship of the North Korean Communists, then regardless how loud their unification slogans are, they could only be a hypocritical political show. That show is just as hypocritical as Wei Jiabo's political show.