茅于軾：別買房！20年後大量剩房

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最近，北京市政府推出新的樓市調控政策——「京十五條」。針對這一被稱為「史上最嚴厲」的房產新規，經濟學家茅于軾提議，生活在北京的年輕人先不要買房，他談到，20年後，房屋會大量剩餘、大幅降價。下面請看報導。

北京市推出的「京十五條」，是繼青島、上海、濟南、成都後，全國第5個針對國務院「新國八條」的實施細則。「京十五條」特別規定：外地人必須在北京連續納稅5年才能購房。

這項措施遭到各界質疑，網民認為北京歧視與排斥外來人員，相當於是宣布：「北京不歡迎外地人。」北京天則經濟研究所所長茅于軾指出，這項「限購令」，是短視的計劃經濟政策，不能從根本上解決問題。

茅于軾：「如果是限制大家買房，我覺得這個辦法是錯誤的，回到計劃經濟了，錢要能夠自由流動，這是市場經濟的最基本的憲法。你限制錢的流動就破壞了市場了。當然它有它的原因，因為北京市房價太高、有泡沫，但是解決這個問題的辦法不是用限制購買。」

《騰訊財經》進行的調查顯示，有64%的網友認為，這項政策對外地人不公平；58%的網友認為，這並不能使房價下跌。

茅于軾：「不但達不到，而且有很壞的負作用。首先一個負作用就是—老百姓（原來已經）不願意買東西、生產出來的東西賣不掉，它這個限制購買（房），就更加賣不掉啦！而且這個房子造成泡沫的原因，那是因為財富的分配----富人分配比較多，窮人分配比較少，富人手裡錢很多，沒有地方用，就去買房子！另外就是，土地供給不足，需求太高，房價就高啦！」

茅于軾建議政府對空房徵稅，從而抑制投機炒房。另外茅于軾提議：生活在北京的年輕人先不要買房，因為計劃生育導致的特殊人口結構，20年後，房屋會大量剩餘、大量掉價。

茅于軾：「我覺得現在的房價高是虛高，將來一定要掉的。因為中國人口不增加，大家都有房，人口減少的話，房子就變成多餘了。」

但是，很多網友覺得「遠水解不了近渴」，有人感嘆：不買房，我住哪？租金跟房貸月供差不多！而且還不斷漲！總不能我這20年住天橋下！

專欄作家胡少江則指出，「京十五條」是北京對外來人員的公開歧視；因此而新增的各種審批環節會滋生更多腐敗。到頭來買單的，還是普通老百姓。

新唐人記者秦雪、李謙、李璐採訪報導。


Mao Yushi: Don』t buy houses! Significant Vacancy in 20 years

The Beijing Municipal government recently launched
new property control policies - "Beijing 15 Articles".
About these "most restrictive" property regulations,
well-known Chinese economist Mao Yushi suggested
the Beijing youth to not purchase houses.
He said in 20 years, there would be lots of vacancies
with substantial price cuts. Let』s see the report.

"Beijing 15 Articles" are the implementation details
as per China』s State Council』s 「New State 8 Articles」.
They stipulate that non-Beijing residents must pay
taxes for 5 consecutive years before purchasing houses.

Netizens take these polices as Beijing』s discrimination
against and exclusion of migrant workers, equivalent to:
"Beijing does not welcome outsiders."
Director of Unirule Institute of Economics, Mao Yushi
called them short-sighted planned economic policies.
They cannot solve the fundamental problems.

Mao: To restrict house purchases is wrong.
It is back to the planned economy.
Money should be able to flow freely,
which is the basic constitution of the market economy.
Restriction of money flows destroys the market.
Beijing』s housing bubble creates exuberantly high prices.
However, the solution is not house purchase restrictions.

A survey by Tencent Finance shows that
64% consider the policies unfair to non-residents.
58% don』t believe the restrictions can lower the prices.

Mao: They also have negative side effects.
First, the people are already unwilling to buy things.
Many products have trouble being sold.
Property purchase restrictions aggravate the situation.
The house bubble is caused by the wealth distribution.
The rich have no place to spend their vast wealth,
so they go to buy houses!
Insufficient land supply and large demand create high prices.

Mao suggested taxation on the vacant houses
to suppress real estate speculation.
He also advised the Beijing youth to not buy houses.
The unique population structure due to family planning
will create a lot of vacant houses in 20 years.
The house prices will plunge as a result.

Mao: I think the current high prices are unrealistic.
They certainly will not be maintained.
As China's population does not increase,
and if everyone has a house, with reduced population,
some houses will become surplus.

Upon learning that the Governor was coming to visit,
Netizens feel "far water cannot put out near fire」.
A netizen: If cannot buy a house, where should I live?
The monthly rents are as high as mortgage payments.
And they keep on increasing!
I cannot just live on the streets for 20 years!

Columnist Hu Shaojiang pointed out that
Beijing 15 Articles openly discriminate against migrants.
New approval procedures will breed more corruption.
The ones that end up paying are still the people.