金正日死了。很多人拍手稱快；很多人憂心忡忡；很多人運籌帷幄。世界各大報紙上都出現了一幅讓人哭笑不得的照片：朝鮮人民一大片一大片地哭倒在地。這讓很多中國人回想起了毛澤東去世的場面。
人是個很奇怪的東西。一方面人們痛恨獨裁暴政，另一方面又對獨裁暴君敬之如神。這是大部分人的狀態。徹底痛恨和徹底信仰的都是少數。在毛死後不幾天就把他夫人抓起來，然後舉國歡慶。這就證明了真正信仰他如神的是少數。毛死之前的四五天安門運動，緊緊依靠工人民兵的木棒就鎮壓下去了。這證明了從蒙蔽中走出來的明白人也是少數。
現在的朝鮮人民就處於中國一九七六年式的精神狀況。西方人不懂這種全民斯德哥爾摩綜合症。他們僅憑著表面現象就以為朝鮮人民仍然熱愛著他們的第三代皇帝。他們都跟著中共政府聲明支持金正恩這個小皇孫，希望朝鮮的准皇帝體制能夠穩定地接班。這倒是從側面證明了西方國家根本不了解他們的對手。難怪他們永遠輸在小小的朝鮮獨裁者手中。
西方人到現在還在說是鄧小平帶領中國走出了毛澤東的模式，也希望金家皇朝的孫子能夠帶領朝鮮人民走出一個中共模式。這是個極大的誤解，但也可能是歪打正著的誤解。和當年的中國情況相似，朝鮮人民中早就在積聚著反抗的情緒，不缺乏人民領袖。只是共產黨體制下不可能集聚足夠的資金搞組織，也沒有外部的支援。他們只能等待體制內的力量出面改革，結果也就只能落入新的圈套。
中國人當年支持了黨內的一派打倒了毛澤東的繼承人。但是華國鋒不想改變毛澤東的體制，人民又只好支持鄧小平打倒了華國鋒。所以中國錯過了革命的機會，進入了鄧小平的獨裁專制時代。鄧小平很明智地滿足了人民一半的願望，又滿足了西方大資本一半的願望，創造了所謂的中國模式。從而在全世界資本家聯合起來的口號下，穩定了後毛澤東時代的一黨專政。
西方的資本家們希望朝鮮也出現另一個中共模式。因為他們在中國的好運氣眼看著就快要好到頭了。所以朝鮮一出現變化，他們就急不可耐的宣傳引導輿論，說金三世會走上中國模式的道路。他們並不希望朝鮮半島會統一在民主自由的道路上。兩德統一曾經是他們的負擔，那可不如一個中國模式的北韓更有賺頭。這就是西方大企業和政客們的如意算盤，其中也包括韓國政客。
但是朝鮮和中國不同。朝鮮不是一個獨立自主的國家。它在很大程度上受到中共的控制，是中共在國際政治中制約美國、日本和韓國的一顆棋子。中共控制朝鮮的手段就是養活著這個經濟上不能獨立的國家。一旦朝鮮進行了中國模式的改革；一旦朝鮮有足夠的財力養活自己，它為什麼要破壞自己的國際信譽，去為中國的共產黨火中取栗呢？不用去西方留學，也沒有人願意扮演一個國際流氓的角色。
金正日的時代比他的父親更困難，這有點像中共的文革後期。神話維持一代還可以，到第二代就走樣了。缺少神話支持的專制政治，就像中國的文革後期一樣充滿了不滿情緒。怠工和不負責任必然使得經濟惡化，這又加重了人民的不滿。如何從這個惡性循環中解脫？身邊就有中國式改革的榜樣，為什麼不學呢？這有三方面的原因。
第一方面是中共式的改革能不能維持朝鮮勞動黨的一黨專政？在早期還看不透。中共只能靠自己，能不能都得試一試，否則就要垮台。而金家政權還有依靠，可以從中國得到援助來維持。這就不急著冒險了。
另外，朝鮮面臨著比中共更大的國內競爭。南面的韓國不斷地想統一朝鮮。一旦統一，共產黨很難在民主框架下重新掌權。中國比台灣大得多，而且當時的台灣還沒有民主化，對共產黨不構成威脅。朝鮮則正好相反，其實韓國比朝鮮大，韓國又已經民主化了，對人民的吸引力不能和台灣相比。朝鮮一旦啟動經濟體制改革，必然被韓國所控制。這是金家父子不敢改革的重要考慮。
而最重要的是中共的態度。無論從經濟上還是安全上考慮，中共都是朝鮮的靠山。而且隨著援助的數量和質量的增加，朝鮮幾乎成了中共的兒子國。雖然金日成和金正日父子都有過小幅度的改革試探，但是開放的口子都只敢面向中共。這除了更加依賴中共之外，沒有產生改革所需要的結果。
中共則很好地利用了金家父子的這種心態。幾十年經營下來，結果是朝鮮對中共言聽計從，充當國際流氓的角色，為中共的戰略目標火中取栗。換句話說，就是替中國打國際政治的代理人戰爭。朝鮮不斷給國際社會找麻煩，迫使國際社會不得不找中國討價還價。而中國則從中獲取政治利益。在這個格局下，中共能允許朝鮮走中共模式的道路發展經濟嗎？
誰也不願意丟掉手中的王牌。答案很明顯。朝鮮有沒有機會從這個兒皇帝的格局中走出來呢？我將在今後討論這個問題。
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On North Korea (part I): The Death of Kim Jong-il
-- Wei Jingsheng
Kim Jong Il is dead. Many people are clapping and cheering; a lot of people are worried; some people are strategizing. Dumbfounding photos emerged on the front pages of the world's major newspapers: a large number of the North Korean people crying down to the ground. This scene makes a lot of Chinese recall the scenes after Mao Zedong's death in 1976.
Humans are a very strange creatures. On the one hand people hate tyranny and dictatorship, on the other hand they treat the tyrants and dictators like gods. This state is common to most people, though these who hate completely and those who worship these tyrants completely are just minorities. Shortly after Mao Zedong's death, his wife was arrested and the whole of China celebrated. This change proves that only a minority really worshiped Mao as the god. The April 5 Movement in 1976 before Mao's death was easily suppressed by the wood sticks in the hands of the workers militia for the government, so proving that the clear minded people who escaped being fooled were also a minority.
Now the North Korean people are in the same type of mentality as the Chinese in 1976. The Westerners do not fully understand this Stockholm syndrome for a whole nation. They just rely on superficial phenomena to think that the North Korean people still love their third generation emperor. Following the action of the Chinese government, they also released statements in support of Kim Jong-un, the young grandson emperor, and expressed wishes that this quasi-emperor system of North Korea would have a steady succession. This support proves from the side that the Western countries do not understand their opponents at all. No wonder they always lose their battles in the hands of a small dictator in North Korea.
Even now, some Westerners still say that Deng Xiaoping led China out of Mao Zedong's model, and they hope the grandson of the Kim Dynasty in North Korea will lead people into a China Model as well. This hope is a great misunderstanding, but it might be a misunderstanding that scores a lucky hit. Just similar to the situation in China then, there has been an accumulating mood of resistance within the North Koreans for a long time that is not lacking of their own leaders for the people. However, under the Communist system, it is impossible to gather enough funds to organize without external support. They can only wait for a reform initiative from within the Communist Party, and thus will only fall into a new trap.
Back then, the Chinese people supported one faction within the Communist Party to overthrow Mao's successors. Hua Guofeng did not want to change Mao's system, so the people had to support Deng Xiaoping to overthrow Hua Guofeng. Thus, China missed the opportunity of revolution and entered the dictatorial era of Deng Xiaoping. Deng was very wise to meet half of the desires of the people, while meeting half of the desires of the big capitalists in the West, thus creating the so-called China Model. Under the slogan of "all the capitalists in the world united", Deng was able to stabilize the one-party dictatorship in the post-Mao era.
Now, the Western capitalists hope North Korea will also become another China. That is because their good fortune in China is beginning to see the end. Therefore, as soon as there is a change in North Korea, they are eager to promote and guide public opinion to make the 3rd emperor in North Korea embark on the road of the China Model. They do not want the Korean peninsula unified on the road of democracy and freedom. The German reunification once was their burden. It was not as lucrative as North Korea would be in a China Model. This plan is the wishful thinking of Western big business and politicians, and also some South Korean politicians.
But North Korea and China are different. North Korea is not an independent sovereign state that could survive on its own. It is largely controlled by China as a pawn to restrain the United States, Japan and South Korea in international politics. China controls North Korea by supporting this country that is not economically independent. Once North Korea conducts a China Model style reform, once it has enough financial strength to support itself, why should it undermine its international credibility by taking the high risk of doing things for the Chinese Communist Party? Even without studying abroad to learn, they will not be willing to play the role of an international rogue.
The era of Kim Jong Il had been more difficult than under his father. It has been sort of like the late Cultural Revolution period in China. The fairy tale of Communism maybe believed for one generation, but it is hard to maintain by the second generation. Authoritarian politics that contradicts the fairy tale will create discontent just as it did in the later period of the Chinese Cultural Revolution. Sabotage and irresponsibility are bound deteriorate the economy, which in turn will increase the discontent among the people. How to escape from this vicious cycle? There is the Chinese-style reform nearby that can serve as an example, so why not? There are three reasons for not learning from that example.
The first is depends on if the Chinese-style reforms can maintain the one-party Communist dictatorship of the Workers' Party of Korea. It is hard to tell in the early stages. Back then, the Chinese Communist Party was forced to try in an effort to avoid collapse. But the Kim dynasty still has its support and could maintain itself through the aid from China. Therefore, there is no anxiousness to take the risk.
In addition, North Korea is facing more competition than China did. South Korea continues to want a unified Korea. Once unified, the Communist Party will have a very hard time maintaining its power in a democratic framework. China is much larger than Taiwan, and Taiwan was not democratic back in 1976, thus not a threat to the Chinese Communist Party. But North Korea is just the opposite. South Korea is more powerful than North Korea and is democratic as well, thus is much more attractive to people in North Korea than the attraction of Taiwan to Mainland Chinese back then. Should North Korea start economic reform, it is bound to be under the control of South Korea. This an important consideration causing the Kim father and son emperors to not dare to reform.
Yet, the most important of all is the attitude of China. Either from economic or security considerations, China is backing North Korea. Moreover, with an increase of quality and quantity of the assistance, North Korea has become an adopted son to Communist China. Although both Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il had modest attempts of reform, they only dared to open the crack of reform toward China. Thus, the result was not what they were seeking from the reform; they only became more dependent on China.
The Chinese Communist Party has taken great advantage of this mentality of Emperor Kim and his son. After several decades of operation, the result has been that China keeps North Korea at heal to be the international rogue and to take high-risk actions for the Chinese Communist's strategic goals. In other words, North Korea is playing a proxy war on behalf of China in international politics. It continuously makes trouble for the international community, forcing it to make bargains with the Chinese Communist regime while China reaps the political benefits. In this situation, will China allow North Korea to develop its economy in the China Model?
No one is willing to throw away a trump card in his or her hands. The answer is obvious. Does North Korea have the opportunity to walk away from its status of puppet emperor? I will talk more on this issue.
