9月17號，香港《南華早報》報導指稱，中共中央組織部部長李源潮是入常的熱門人選。報導援引分析人士的話說，因為李源潮特殊的「八九背景」， 如果居於權力高層，將有助於中共正視「八九民運」的歷史或「平反六四」。下面和本台記者一起去了解。
一直以來，具有「太子黨」、「團派」以及「上海幫」等多重色彩的中組部部長李源潮，被認為是中共十八大入常的熱門人選。
香港《南華早報》以「李源潮，政治新星八面玲瓏」為題，報導分析李源潮可能會順利進入中共中央政治局常委，並可能在未來當選為中國（共）國家副主席。
文章指出，李源潮目前執掌中共的「人事控制中心」，也就是「中組部」，使得他和各個政治派系之間的關係得以鞏固。
另據報導，李源潮曾高調肯定薄熙來在重慶的政績，但在重慶事件後，李源潮暗批薄熙來，並幫助團派清理江系餘黨。
據了解，4年前，薄熙來被貶到重慶，走馬上任時，李源潮親口宣布對薄的任命。而戲劇性的是，4年後，薄熙來的政治生涯走到了盡頭，宣布薄被免職的，也是李源潮。
另外，在「八九民運」時，李源潮在團中央就職，他所管轄的報紙《中國青年報》，曾刊登同情學生的文章，並有報社記者聯名向中共請願，李源潮被指認，態度不夠強硬，他的仕途在「八九民運」後，曾一度受到阻礙。
《南華早報》引述原《中國青年報》資深記者、《冰點》周刊主編李大同的分析，說，正是因為李源潮，及其他一些團派執政者的這個特定歷史背景，如果他們居於權力高層，將有助於中共正視「八九民運」的歷史或「平反六四」。
對此，獨立評論員韓武認為，李源潮入常可能性很大，但是，是否會平反「六四」，他表示：不樂觀。
獨立評論員韓武：「因為他平反『六四』不僅僅涉及到中共的一個態度問題，實際上是涉及到它的一個政治改革的一個信號的問題，像這麼重大的政治問題，一上台就要搞什麼『六四』的平反呀，這些什麼政改的口號，都是不現實的，首先會用1到兩年穩定他的班子。」
李大同也認為，無論是習近平還是李源潮，或是中共執政者中的任何個體，憑一人之力，無法直接推動政改，中共如果實施政改也將阻力重重，所以在十八大權力交接後的第一個任期內，習近平應該是以穩定大局為主，不會有大的動作。
「北京語言文化大學」86級學生張前進，曾因「六四事件」被中共判以「反革命宣傳煽動罪」，處兩年徒刑，他對《新唐人》表示，對平反「六四」這個議題的本身，他非常不贊成。
「北京語言文化大學」86級學生張前進：「中共執政黨，它本來用非法的手段來上台的，它有什麼資格來給我們平反這個說法。原來寄托在溫家寶的身上，說他比較開明，現在又要寄托在什麼李源潮的身上？我覺得我們的思維，還是要脫離這個老的這種條條框框。」
張前進進一步分析說，現在的中國老百姓，也盼望自己的國家能夠強大起來，但是，目前最大的攔阻不是經濟、GDP增長的問題，而是中共這個獨裁體制的問題。
張前進：「像中東茉莉花革命這樣 ，當整個人民都起來以後，那他必須要正視人民的聲音和力量，那就不是來祈求他來給我們一個什麼評價，一個什麼平反，這是我的一個認識。」
不過，中共是否會利用「平反六四」這件事情，來換取民心？張前進認為，目前中共的危機，已接近惡變的臨界點，為了穩固政權，中共可能會做出一些順應歷史潮流的事情。
採訪編輯/常春 後制/王明宇[next]
Li Yuanchao To Rehabilitate June 4 Pro-democracy Event?
On September 17, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post
reported, Li Yuanchao, Minister of the Organization Dep. of
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee is
a popular candidate for the Politburo Standing Committee.
The report quoted analysts as saying, due to Li's significant
involvement in the 1989 pro-democracy movement,
if he takes the position, it may be helpful for the CCP to face up
to the history of the 1989 event or even rehabilitate June 4.
Please see the following reports.
For a long time, Li Yuanchao, Minister of the Organization
Department of the CCP's Central Committee has been
a popular candidate for the Politburo Standing Committee.
Li Yuanchao has been defined in many shades: 「Princeling」,
「Communist Youth League faction」 and 「Shanghai Gang」.
Hong Kong's South China Morning Post published an article
with the title: 「Li Yuanchao, A Flexible Political Star」.
Reports say Li may enter the Politburo Standing Committee
smoothly and take the position of CCP vice president.
Reports say Li Yuanchao currently controls the CCP
personnel center—the Central Committee Organization Dep.
The position requires him to consolidate the relationships
between the various political factions and himself.
Reports say Li Yuanchao gave a high-profile remark praising
Bo Xilai's achievements, but after the Chongqing event,
Li turned to criticize Bo and helped the Communist
Youth League (CYL) faction to clean Jiang Zemin's rear end.
It is understood that, 4 years ago, Bo Xilai was demoted to
Chongqing and Li Yuanchao had announced the appointment.
Li Yuanchao had also announced the removal of Bo Xilai
recently, when Bo's political career came to a dramatic end.
Moreover, Li had been in the 1989 CYL Central committee
and at that time, was managing China Youth Daily,
which published articles to sympathize with the students
in their 1989 pro-democracy movement.
There were also China Youth Daily reporters who had sent
joint petitions to the CCP in support of the movement.
Afterwards, the CCP leaders criticized Li's attitude as being
「not tough enough」 and Li's political career was hampered.
South China Morning Post quoted an analysis by Li Datong,
China Youth Daily's former senior reporter
and editor of Freezing point Weekly.
Li Datong analysed, it is precisely because of the history of
Li Yuanchao and other CYL faction rulers that,
if they would take senior power, they may help the CCP to face up to the
1989 pro-democracy movement or even rehabilitate June 4.
Independent commentator Han Wu thinks, in this regard,
there is a big opportunity for Li Yuanchao to enter into the
Politburo Standing Committee, but as for rehabilitating June 4 Han is not optimistic.
[Han Wu, Commentator]: 「As for rehabilitating June 4,
it is something not only related to the CCP's attitude, but also with political reform.
As for these kinds of important political issues,
it is unrealistic for Li Yuanchao to rehabilitate June 4
and start political reform as soon as he takes his position;
I think he will spend 1 or 2 years stabilizing his team.」
Li Datong also thinks, whether it is Xi Jinping, Li Yuanchao,
or other CCP rulers, a single person could not start a political
reform; there's sure to be heavy resistance against a reform.
Therefore, in the first term after the power transfer of the 18th
CCP National Congress, Xi Jinping may focus on stability —he's unlikely to take any drastic moves.
Zhang Qianjin was a student of Beijing Language and Culture
University in 1986, who was then sentenced by the CCP as a
「counter-revolutionary」 and for 「propaganda and incitement」
receiving a 2-year prison sentence after the June 4 movement.
Zhang Qianjin said to NTDTV that he strongly opposed
the CCP's wording vindicating the June 4 event.
[Zhang Qianjin, Jailed 1986 Student, Beijing]: 「The CCP
just used illegal means to gain power, so it does not qualify to rehabilitate us.
In the past, we put our hope into Wen Jiabao as he seemed to
be progressive; now we should start relying on Li Yuanchao?
—I think we should get rid of this idea.」
Zhang Qianjin analyses further that, nowadays,
Chinese people also hope their country would be better.
However, the biggest barrier is not China's economy
or the GDP growth, but the CCP's dictatorship.
[Zhang Qianjin]: 「Just like the Jasmine Revolution in China,
once all people would join a movement,
the CCP would have to face the people's voice and strength.
By that time, we would not need to ask the CCP to give us
a review or vindicate us—this is my opinion.」
However, will the CCP rehabilitate June 4 in exchange for
getting the people’s support?
Zhang Qianjin thinks, the CCP's crisis is close to reaching
the critical point;
the CCP may take action following its historical trends,
in order to solidify its regime.
