中國：世界最大的移民輸出國
據《國際移民報告》統計，2012年中國已成為世界最大的海外移民輸出國，共有超過15萬名大陸居民在這一年獲取了外國國籍。
其中，移民美國的人數超過87,000人，另外各有大約30,000人分別選擇了移民加拿大和澳大利亞。
此報告由中國與全球化研究中心及北京理工大學法學院聯合發表，是中國第一部年度移民報告。
報告指出，更好的子女教育機會、污染防控和政治環境是促使中國富裕階層尋求海外身份和居留權的主因。
貝恩諮詢公司和招商銀行2011年也發表過一份類似的報告，其中顯示有80%左右的中國移民都表示，更好的教育機會是他們移民海外的首要原因。
大多數移民都選擇了英語國家。在很多中國人看來，事業成功與個人英語水平的高低密不可分。
2013年1月15日，《南華早報》在題為「國際學校市場擴大」的報導中稱，中國大陸現有國際學校338所。其中上海最多，共有91所，其後依次是北京（77所）、深圳（16所）、成都（15所）。這還不包括香港和澳門，香港共有43所國際學校，澳門也有一些。
隨著這類學校發展壯大，似乎也為那些打算讓孩子通過學習國際課程，以便為將來去國外上大學打好基礎的家長提供了更多選擇。
我常聽久居中國的當地和外國朋友說，除了子女教育以外，很多「跑路者」也在為自己的財富尋找更為安全和可靠的司法體系。很多推測都認為，其中某些（或大多數）人都是貪官，希望能「在警方出現前跑路」，特別是在新一代中共領導人強調反腐的形勢下。
有一點可以肯定：今年對移民目的地的選擇與投奔個稅低的國家無關。
資本外逃和人才流失才是真正的擔憂，兩者雖有不同，但也有些重疊。根據前文提到的報告，2010年的全球移民總數約為214,000,000人，聽起來大得驚人。
假如這個數字是真實的，那中國移民海外的人數只是九牛一毛。但另一方面，它也揭示出至少在經濟上算是成功的人士看待祖國的未來以及他們子女前景的角度。
這可能才是大多數人的擔憂所在。2012年中國的不確定因素和民眾焦慮感異於往常。這在去年很多國家由於經濟和政治因素都很普遍，但中國卻有它的國情特徵。
去年下半年，我發現在中國的朋友們普遍都比較悲觀和憤世。對空氣污染和食品安全的擔憂自然是原因之一，但他們的憂慮廣度和深度已遠遠超出了健康問題的範疇。
春節將近，我感覺身邊的人表現出更多的積極和樂觀，但還有很多關於政策導向的問題尚待解答。雖然某種程度上這是任何一個領導層更迭年的常態，但由於關係到整體的改革大業，所以確實是處在歷史的交叉路口。
我並不覺得15萬大陸居民取得外國護照是件大事，也不認為這會對更宏偉的計劃產生什麼警示作用。
如果由此能造就出大批教育良好、有國際背景的年輕中國人，反倒是件好事。
財富帶來更多選擇的機會，一夜暴富可能會讓人興起「外國的月亮比較圓」的幻想，但結果卻並不一定如此。
我的親身經歷告訴我，當你問別人——無論是中國人還是外國人——為什麼要拿別國護照時，一般聽到的回答都不見得是真的。
最近一位有錢的美國朋友告訴我，他剛放棄了美國護照。他說他對美國的政策和發展不再抱任何幻想，所以才決定放棄。
我絲毫不懷疑他焦慮的真實性，但他沒有提這本新護照能讓他比當美國人少交多一半的個稅，還可以享受其他一系列低稅率、簡單稅則和連帶福利。
換言之，長期大量地節省個人財務開支才是他這一決定的自然結果。這本身並沒有錯，但即使是在朋友之間，他也對此有所隱晦。
一方面這是人性使然，但另一方面也說明不同的人看待國籍和金錢的方式不同。
China: World’s Largest Source of Immigrants
China was the world’s largest source of outbound immigrants in2012, with more than150,000 mainlanders obtaining overseas citizenship, according to the International Migration Report.
More than87,000 emigrated to the U.S., with roughly30,000 choosing Canada and about the same number opting for Australia.
The report, the first of its kind, was issued by the Centre for China and Globalisation, and the Beijing Institute of Technology’s law school.
Its authors pointed out that better educational opportunities for their children, as well as pollution and the political environment were among the main drivers for wealthier Chinese seeking overseas passports and residence.
A similar observation was made in a2011 report jointly released by Bain& Company and China Merchants Bank, which said that some80% of outbound immigrants cited better education opportunities as their top reason for emigrating.
The vast majority of the emigrants chose English-speaking countries. English language ability is closely correlated with career success in the minds of most Chinese people.
According to the South China Morning Post,「Growing Market for International Schools」(January15,2013), the Chinese mainland now has338 international schools. Shanghai leads the way with91, followed by Beijing(77), Shenzhen(16), Chengdu(15), and so on. This doesn’t count Hong Kong, which has43 international schools, or Macau, which has several as well.
As these schools mature, they seem likely to provide a viable alternative to parents whose primary aim is to seek a more international curriculum for their children and prepare them for overseas studies at the tertiary level.
The common chatter I hear among Chinese and foreign friends in China is that apart from better education for their kids, many of theseémigrés are seeking safer and more secure jurisdictions for their wealth. It’s widely assumed that some(or many) of them are corrupt officials wishing to stay「one step ahead of the sheriff,」 especially as the new Chinese leadership has been talking about stepped up anti-corruption efforts.
One thing is for sure: the choice of destinations for this year’s emigrating class was not driven by a search for lower personal income tax rates.
Capital flight and brain drain are valid concerns, for different but somewhat overlapping reasons.
According to the same report, total global migration in2010 was somewhere in the range of214 million people, which sounds a staggeringly large number.
If this is an accurate number, then China’s outbound migration seems a drop in the bucket. On the other hand, it says something about how relatively successful people, at least as measured in economic terms, perceive the future prospects of their homeland for themselves and their offspring.
That is probably the theme most people find of concern. The year2012 in China featured a very unusual degree of uncertainty and angst. That was true in many countries last year for economic as well as political reasons, but in China it took place with special Chinese characteristics.
By the second half of the year, I detected a high level of pessimism and cynicism among friends I spoke with in China. Naturally, concerns about air pollution and food safety were part of the mix, but the scope of their concerns was wider and deeper than health issues.
As we approach the Lunar New Year, I sense more of an upbeat and optimistic spirit among people I talk with, although a host of questions about policy directions are still waiting to be answered. To some extent that’s typical of any major leadership transition year, although this is more of a historic crossroads with regards to a whole range of important reform issues.
I don’t actually think150,000 mainlanders obtaining foreign passports is great cause for alarm in the greater scheme of things.
To the extent that it produces a larger cohort of well-educated, globally aware young Chinese people, it’s a positive development.
With wealth comes a range of choices, and sudden wealth may be accompanied by a naïve sense that the grass is greener on the other side of the hill. In the end, it may or may not be.
One thing I know from personal experience, however: when you ask someone— Chinese or otherwise— why they obtained a foreign passport, you shouldn’t necessarily expect a completely honest answer.
Recently a wealthy American friend told me he had given up his US passport. He cited a list of his disillusionment with various US policies and developments as the main factor behind his decision.
I don’t doubt those frustrations are real, but what he didn’t mention was that the personal income tax rate associated with his new passport is less than half that of the U.S., plus he will enjoy a whole range of other lower tax rates, simpler tax policies and related benefits.
In other words, a huge long-term financial savings was an outcome of his passport-changing decision. Nothing wrong with that per se, but even in explaining that decision to a friend he chose not to mention that part of the picture.
That’s human nature, on the one hand. On the other, it also illustrates that different people view nationality, and money, in different ways.
