美國和南韓、日本連續在中國家門口大搞軍事演習，北京如何應對，令世界矚目。《華盛頓郵報》12月8日刊登伊格納修斯（David Ignatius）發自北京的文章說，崛起的中國是個自相矛盾的國家，它既想在全球事務中起到更大的作用，又飽受臨陣怯場之苦。

　　這種觀感體現在中國官員的言談中。上星期五在北京中共中央黨校舉行的一次中國、美國、歐洲多邊會議上，一位中國高級官員談到北韓、人民幣匯率等重大問題時說：「中國應當少當旁觀者，多做行動者。當我們出場時，不應當背對觀眾，好像我們也是觀眾的一份子。」

華盛頓郵報：自相矛盾的中國 是縮頭烏龜還是崛起的大國？


　　然而中國人提出解決辦法時，卻表現得小心翼翼。中國官員不認為，北韓和全球經濟不平衡是大問題。他們建議的焦點是討論而不是行動。在會議後的記者會上，北京大學政府管理學院常務副院長傅軍表示，中國為北韓問題開出的藥方是『對話，對話，再對話」。「維基解密(專題)」披露的一份美國國務院密電說，這種方式讓國務院官員感到沮喪。他們認為，北京私下縱容北韓的邊緣政策。

　　中央黨校召開的這次會議，是一次不尋常的努力，目的是探尋中國和美國、西方的共同利益和聯合行動的可能性。與會的哈佛大學教授、前美國助理國務卿伯恩斯（Nicholas Burns）說：「不管共同利益的程度多麼令人驚奇，我們似乎並沒有能力一起干點什麼。」他指出，中國對北韓具有最大的影響力，「但卻不太願意運用」，因而中國作為一個安全夥伴，「尚未通過考驗」。

　　出席這次會議的幾名中國官員解釋說，中國的外交政策之所以小心翼翼，部分原因是官員們的注意力集中在保持國內經濟增長，讓潛在不滿情緒的公眾高興。一位中國高級官員說：「我不認為中國是自私的。」但他承認，北京首先需要考慮的，是中國的內部問題。在北韓問題上，北京擔心受到壓力的平壤會孤注一擲，打發大量難民涌過邊界進入中國。

　　會議的對話產生了一些行動的跡象。中央黨校的一位教授在會議開始時，駁斥美國對人民幣匯率問題的指責。但經過多番討論之後，那位教授表示，中國可能會通過提高工資水平，讓工人能夠購買更多從美國進口的貨品，來減少貿易盈餘。他甚至提議建立「合作機制」，以促進中國和美國的貿易平衡。

　　美國官員感到無奈的是，中國喜歡的是像過去幾十年那樣，強大而樂於助人的美國，而不是放低身段，較多夥伴關係的美國。一個美國代表指責中國人，把歐巴馬政府初期的讓步看作軟弱，然後發出鷹派言論，把南中國海說成是中國的「核心利益」。哈佛大學教授奈伊（Joseph Nye）表示，中國官員試圖私下緩和美國的關注。他們說，中國對南中國海問題的看法被「誤解」了。

　　與會的中國人和美國人都聲稱，「我們坐在同一條船上」。這種觀點值得鼓勵，但這艘船目前卻在隨波逐流，需要中、美雙方開始同心協力划槳。這次會議結束後，中國仍然呈現矛盾的形象——一方面是繁榮而自信，領導人全神貫注於國內經濟增長和政治穩定，一方面和西方的政策之爭，又削弱了他們的自信。



In China, confidence clouded by apprehension

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By David Ignatius

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

BEIJING

The paradox of a rising China - a country that wants to play a bigger role in global affairs but suffers from a combination of lethargy and stage fright - was on display here at a conference with Chinese officials.

"China needs to be less of an observer and more of an actor" on major issues such as North Korea and currency adjustments, one senior Chinese official declared during the meeting. "When we're on the stage, we shouldn't turn our back on the audience, as if we're part of the audience."

And yet, when it came to proposing solutions during a meeting last Friday with American and European visitors, the Chinese were cautious. Officials didn't disagree that North Korea and the imbalances in the global economy were big problems. But their recommendations focused on discussion rather than action - to the point that harmonious talk seemed an end in itself.

China's prescription for North Korea is "dialogue, dialogue, dialogue," Jun Fu, executive dean of the school of government at Beijing University, said at a news conference after the meeting. That approach frustrates State Department officials, who think Beijing is privately fed up with North Korean brinkmanship, according to a State Department cable made public by WikiLeaks.

The conference was an unusual effort to explore areas of common interest and, potentially, joint action. It was hosted by the Central Party School, a leadership training center headed by Xi Jinping, who is slated to be China's next president. The other sponsors were the Aspen Strategy Group (of which I'm a member) and the Aspen Institute Italia.

"This isn't a situation where we're talking past each other, but we don't seem to have the ability to act together" despite "a surprising degree of common interest," said Nicholas Burns, a former undersecretary of state who is now a Harvard professor and director of the Aspen Strategy Group. On North Korea, he noted, China has the most leverage but "seems reluctant to use it" and "isn't meeting the test yet" as a security partner.


The meeting was held on the campus of the party school in the suburbs of Beijing. The school's bland courtyards contrast with the gaudy architecture of the new downtown, clustered with fancy hotels and luxury boutiques.

The anxieties that accompany China's new wealth were apparent in a story that ran in the official China Daily on the morning of our meeting. It described the trend among the country's new rich to hire private bodyguards. Sometimes, it seems, gaining wealth just makes people more nervous about losing it.

Several Chinese officials who attended the not-for-attribution meeting explained that China is wary about foreign policy in part because officials are focused instead on maintaining domestic economic growth and keeping a potentially restless public happy.

"I'm not saying that China is selfish," said a senior official, who then conceded that Beijing does indeed think first about its internal problems. In the case of North Korea, China fears that pressuring Pyongyang would send desperate refugees across the border.

The conversation produced a few signs of movement. One professor at the party school began by dismissing U.S. pleas for adjustment of China's currency. But after more discussion, the professor said that perhaps China could reduce its trade surplus by raising salary levels so workers could buy more imports from the United States. He even proposed a "coordination mechanism" to foster balanced trade.

What frustrates U.S. officials is that China sometimes seems more comfortable accommodating a strong United States, as it did in past decades, than partnering with an America that's less dominant. One American delegate chided the Chinese for treating the Obama administration's early concessions as signs of weakness, and for making a hawkish new claim that the South China Sea was a "core interest" for China.

Joseph Nye, a Harvard professor with the U.S. group, said Chinese officials here privately tried to ease U.S. concerns by saying that there had been a "misperception" of China's comments about the South China Sea.

"We're in the same boat" was a remark made here by Chinese and Americans alike. That sounds encouraging. But the boat is drifting these days, if not sinking outright, and the two need to start paddling in unison.

I came away from the meeting with the same mixed picture I saw touring China a month ago - that for all the country's prosperity and seeming confidence, its leaders are preoccupied with problems of internal growth and political stability. They see policy debates with the West through this clouded lens.