看到清華某著名教授對《盧比奧在慕尼黑演講》神經錯亂的解讀，我忍不住要糾正他的胡扯。因為盧比奧的演講是川普第二任期後，最系統的對歐洲的戰略表態。這一戰略表態，非常清晰的表達了美國對歐政策，下一屆如果繼續是共和黨當政，必然成為美國國策。
因此正確理解盧比奧的演講，對判斷未來國際局勢非常重要！
與2025年副總統的強硬發言不同，這一次盧比奧沒有"開炮"，而是以歷史、文明與情感鋪陳開場。但在溫和語氣之下，戰略核心並未改變：美國仍然堅持"美國優先"，歐洲必須承擔更多責任，否則美國將按自己的節奏單獨行動。
圍繞這一戰略核心，演講分為三層結構：
第一層：打破"歷史終結"的幻覺
盧比奧回溯1963年首屆慕安會，指出冷戰結束後西方沉迷於"歷史已經終結"的幻覺。全球化、無邊界市場、多邊機構被當作永久和平的保證。
他列舉的後果十分清晰：去工業化導致製造能力外移、供應鏈受制於戰略競爭對手、福利擴張擠壓國防預算、激進氣候政策削弱能源安全、失控移民衝擊社會凝聚力。
他的邏輯並非"外敵造成衰落"，而是"西方自我選擇了錯誤路徑"。這是一次文明內部的反思，而不是簡單的對外指責。
第二層：提出"新西方世紀"構想
盧比奧反覆強調，"我們屬於彼此"。他說美國雖然在西半球，但文化上永遠是歐洲的孩子。然而，這種情感表述背後是明確條件：
歐洲必須大幅增加軍費、北約要更歐洲化、重新掌握能源與關鍵礦產、恢復工業能力、強化邊境控制。
在經濟層面，他點名未來競爭領域：人工智慧、商業航天、柔性製造、關鍵礦產供應鏈、全球南方市場。
這意味著美國不再為一個"躺平的歐洲"買單，而是要打造一個更強硬、更自主的西方共同體。
第三層：文明敘事高潮
盧比奧花了相當篇幅講美國的歐洲血統：義大利探險家、英國殖民者、德國農民、西班牙牛仔……他甚至提到自己的家族背景。
這不是煽情，而是一種戰略包裝：把川普主義從國家主義提升為"文明復興運動"。
可以說，盧比奧的演講是對歐洲"溫柔的最後通牒"。
語氣親切，但要求極高。掌聲很多，但壓力更大。歐洲必須承擔防務成本、調整能源政策、控制移民，否則美國將把資源轉向印太。
對中國
演講沒有頻繁點名，但幾乎所有關於供應鏈、工業空心化、全球化失衡的指向，都是中國。
盧比奧並未宣告冷戰式對抗，而是提出"文明自救"。其含義是：西方不會再以單邊開放承擔不對稱風險。
對俄烏戰爭
美國繼續"邊打邊談"的策略，既維持對俄壓力，又保留政治解決空間。這既兌現川普競選承諾，也給外交博弈保留迴旋餘地。
這場演講真正重要之處在於：它沒有宣布美國退出歐洲。也沒有重回傳統全球主義。
它試圖構建第三條道路：一個以主權為核心、以文明認同為紐帶、以產業安全為基礎的西方共同體。
盧比奧所做的，是把川普主義從"美國民族主義"升級為"西方文明共同體"。
因此不是美國拋棄歐洲，而是美國要求歐洲升級。跟得上，就共建"新西方世紀"；跟不上，美國也會繼續前行。
反覆縱覽演講全文，完全是川普主義對歐洲政策的具體化、明朗化，絲毫看不到某教授所說的"盧比奧內心想法與川普有很大的不同"。以前只知道他是清華社會學教授，不知道他還會讀心術。
附：美國務卿魯比奧慕尼黑安全會議的演講全文(中英)
美國國務卿馬科·魯比奧於2026年2月14日在慕尼黑安全會議上發表演講，以下為其演講全文轉錄。轉錄基於公開來源，包括編輯筆記和演講視頻。演講主題聚焦於美歐聯盟、西方文明復興等。
演講正文：
一個拯救了世界的歷史性聯盟
非常感謝！我們今天作為一個歷史性聯盟的成員，聚集在這裡。這個聯盟拯救並改變了世界。你知道，當這個會議於1963年開始時，這個國家，乃至整個歐洲大陸，被割裂著。共產主義國家和自由世界的界限穿過德國的心臟。柏林圍牆的第一道帶刺鐵絲網，剛剛在兩年前豎起。而當我們的前輩第一次在這裡，在慕尼黑開會的前幾個月，古巴飛彈危機將世界推向核毀滅的邊緣。
即使第二次世界大戰，仍鮮活地留在美國人和歐洲人記憶中，我們發現自己正盯著一個新的全球災難的槍口，這個災難具有比人類歷史上任何事物，都更具末日性和終結性的破壞潛力。在那第一次交鋒的時代，蘇聯共產主義正在前進。數千年的西方文明懸於一線。當時，勝利遠非篤定。
但我們被一個共同的目的所驅動。我們不僅僅是因為共同反對的事物而團結，更因為我們共同為之奮鬥的東西而團結。團結在一起，歐洲和美國勝利了。一個大陸被重建，我們的生活繁榮了。隨著時間推移，東方和西方集團重新統一。一個文明再次完整。那堵將這個國家分成兩半的臭名昭著的牆倒塌了，隨之而去的是一個邪惡帝國。東方和西方再次成為一體。
"歷史終結"的危險錯覺
但這種勝利的狂喜導致我們陷入一個危險的錯覺。我們進入了所謂"歷史的終結"："每個國家現在都會成為自由民主國家，貿易和商業的聯繫取代國家身份。基於規則的全球秩序，這個過度使用的術語，將取代國家利益。我們將生活在一個沒有邊界的世界，每個人都成為世界公民。"
這是一個愚蠢的想法，它忽略了人性，也忽略了超過5000年有記錄的人類歷史的教訓。它讓我們付出了沉重的代價。
我們錯誤的代價
在這種錯覺中，我們擁抱了自由和不受限制貿易的教條願景，即使一些國家保護他們的經濟並補貼他們的公司，系統地削弱、關閉我們的工廠，導致我們社會的大部分被去工業化，將數百萬工人階級和中產階級的工作崗位運往海外，並將我們關鍵供應鏈的控制權交給競爭對手。
我們越來越將我們的主權外包給國際機構，而許多國家以犧牲維持自衛能力為代價，投資於大規模福利支出，同時有些國家以人類歷史上最快的速度投資於軍事建設，並毫不猶豫地使用硬實力追求自己的利益。
為了安撫氣候焦慮，我們對自己強加了能源政策，這些政策正在使我們的人民貧困化，即使我們的競爭對手利用石油、煤炭和天然氣以及其他任何東西，不僅用來驅動他們的經濟，還用來作為對付我們自己的利器。在追求沒有邊界的世界的過程中，我們打開了大門，迎接前所未有的大規模移民浪潮，這威脅到我們社會的凝聚力、我們文化的連續性、以及我們人民的未來。
復興和恢復的願景
我們一起犯了這些錯誤，現在我們一起，為了我們的人民，面對這些事實並前進、重建。在川普總統領導下，美利堅合眾國將再次承擔復興和恢復的任務，由一個像我們文明的過去一樣驕傲、一樣主權、一樣關鍵的未來願景所驅動。雖然我們如有必要將準備獨自做這件事，但我們的偏好和希望，是和你們，我們在歐洲的朋友，一起做這件事。因為美國和歐洲，我們本是一家。
美國成立於250年前，但根源早在很久以前就在這個大陸開始了。定居並建造我所出生國家的那些人到達我們的海岸，帶著他們祖先的記憶、傳統和基督教信仰，這些作為神聖的遺產，是老世界和新世界之間不可打破的聯繫。
我們是同一個文明的一部分：西方文明。我們被國家間能分享的最深的紐帶所綁定，由幾個世紀的共享歷史、基督教信仰、文化、遺產、語言、祖先，以及我們的祖先為我們共同文明所做的犧牲所鍛造。
對嚴肅性和互惠的呼籲
所以這就是為什麼我們美國人在我們的建議中，有時候可能會顯得有點直接和緊急。這就是為什麼川普總統要求我們歐洲的朋友嚴肅對待和互惠的原因，我的朋友，是因為我們深切關心！我們深切關心你們的未來，和我們的未來！
如果我們有時無法達成一致，我們的分歧來自於我們對歐洲的深刻關切，我們與之相連的歐洲，不僅僅是經濟上的，不僅僅是軍事上的。我們在精神上是聯絡的，我們在文化上也是聯絡在一起的。我們希望歐洲強大。我們相信歐洲必須生存下去。
因為上個世紀的兩次偉大戰爭對我們來說是歷史不斷的提醒，最終我們的命運是並且永遠是與你們的命運交織在一起。因為我們知道歐洲的命運永遠不會與我們無關緊要。
我們在捍衛什麼？
這次會議主要討論的是國家安全，不僅僅是一系列技術性問題。我們花多少錢在國防上，或者在哪裡，我們如何部署，這些都是重要的問題。是，但不是根本的問題。
我們一開始必須回答的根本問題是，我們到底在捍衛什麼？因為軍隊不為抽象而戰。軍隊為人民而戰。軍隊為一個國家而戰。軍隊為一種生活方式而戰。
這就是我們正在捍衛的。一個偉大的文明，它完全有理由為自己的歷史感到自豪，對自己的未來充滿信心，並致力於永遠成為自己經濟和政治命運的主人。
歐洲的遺產和承諾
正是在這裡，在歐洲，改變了世界的自由思想火種誕生了。正是這裡，歐洲，給了世界法治、大學和科學革命。
正是這個大陸產生了莫扎特和貝多芬、但丁和莎士比亞、米開朗基羅和達文西、披頭四樂隊和滾石樂隊的天才。這裡是西斯廷教堂的拱形天花板和科隆大教堂高聳的尖頂的地方，它們不僅證明了我們過去的偉大，也證明了激發了這些奇蹟的對上帝的信仰。它們預示著未來等待我們的奇蹟。
但是，只有當我們對自己的遺產毫不掩飾，並為這一共同的遺產感到自豪時，我們才能共同開始構想和塑造我們的經濟和政治未來。
扭轉破壞性政策選擇
去工業化並非不可避免。這是一個有意識的政策選擇，一個長達幾十年的經濟事業，剝奪了我們國家的財富、生產能力和獨立性。
失去我們的供應鏈主權並不是繁榮和健康的全球貿易體系的功能。這很愚蠢。這是我們經濟的愚蠢但自願的轉變，使我們依賴他人來滿足我們的需求，並危險地容易受到危機的影響。
大規模移民也不是一些無關緊要的邊緣註腳，這一直是一場正在改變和破壞整個西方社會穩定的危機。
我們可以一起實現經濟再工業化，重建保衛人民的能力。但這個新聯盟的工作，不應該只關注軍事合作和恢復過去的產業。它還應該專注於共同推進我們的共同利益和新的領域，解開我們的聰明才智、創造力和充滿活力的精神，以建立一個新的西方世紀。
商業太空旅行和尖端人工智慧、工業自動化和柔性製造，為關鍵礦產創造一個不易受其他大國敲詐勒索的西方供應鏈，並共同努力在全球南方經濟中爭奪市場份額。團結起來，我們不僅可以重新控制自己的行業和供應鏈，還可以在定義21世紀的領域繁榮昌盛。
邊境管制和國家主權
但我們也必須控制我們的國界。控制誰以及有多少人進入我們的國家，這不是仇外心理的表現，也不是仇恨，而是國家主權的基本行為。而不這樣做不僅僅是放棄我們欠人民最基本的責任之一。這是對我們社會結構和文明本身生存的緊迫威脅。
改革全球秩序
最後，我們不能再把所謂的全球秩序置於我們人民和國家的切身利益之上。我們不需要放棄我們制定的國際合作體系，我們也不需要拆除我們共同建立的舊秩序的全球機構。但這些必須改革。這些必須重建。
例如，聯合國仍然具有成為世界改善工具的巨大潛力，但我們不能忽視的是，今天在我們面前最緊迫的問題上，它沒有答案，幾乎沒有發揮任何作用。它無法解決加沙的戰爭，而是美國領導層將俘虜從野蠻人手中解放出來，並帶來了脆弱的休戰。它沒有解決烏克蘭的戰爭。今天，美國領導層與在座的許多國家合作，只是讓雙方坐在談判桌上，尋找仍然難以捉摸的和平。它對限制德黑蘭激進什葉派神職人員的核計劃是無能為力的。這需要美國B-2轟炸機精確投下14枚炸彈。它無法解決委內瑞拉一個毒品恐怖主義獨裁者對我們安全的威脅。相反，美國特種部隊將這名罪犯繩之以法。
在一個完美的世界裡，所有這些問題以及更多問題都會由外交官和措辭有力的決議來解決，但我們並不生活在一個完美的世界裡，我們不能繼續允許那些公然和公開威脅我們公民並危及我們全球穩定的人，在他們自己經常違反的抽象國際法中保護自己。
一起走在共同的道路上
這是川普總統和美國走上的道路。這是我們要求您在歐洲加入我們的道路。這是我們以前一起走過的路，讓我們再次一起走。
在第二次世界大戰結束前的五個世紀裡，西方一直在擴張。它的傳教士、朝聖者、士兵、探險家，從海岸湧出，穿越海洋，定居新大陸，建立遍布全球的龐大帝國。但在1945年，這是自哥倫布時代以來第一次收縮。歐洲處於廢墟之中。其中一半住在鐵幕後面，其餘的看起來很快就會跟上。偉大的西方帝國已經進入了最終的衰落，無神的共產主義革命和反殖民起義加速了衰落，這些起義將改變世界，並在未來幾年將紅錘和鐮刀披在廣大地圖上。
在這種背景下，當時和現在一樣，許多人開始相信西方的統治時代已經結束，我們的未來註定是我們過去微弱的回聲。但我們的前輩們一起認識到，衰落是一種選擇，也是他們拒絕做出的選擇。這是我們以前一起做過的事情，這就是川普總統和美國現在想和你一起再次做的事情。這就是為什麼我們不希望我們的盟友軟弱。因為那會讓我們更弱。
我們想要能夠自衛的盟友，這樣就不會有對手被誘惑去考驗我們的集體力量。這就是為什麼，我們不希望我們的盟友被內疚和羞恥所束縛。我們想要那些為自己的文化和遺產感到自豪的盟友，他們明白我們是同一偉大而高貴的文明的繼承人，並且願意並能夠和我們一起捍衛它。
這就是為什麼我們不希望盟友將破碎的現狀合理化，而是要考慮解決它，因為我們在美國，對成為衰落的西方的禮貌有序的照顧者不感興趣。我們不尋求分離，而是重振古老的友誼，更新人類歷史上最偉大的文明。
我們想要的是一個重振的聯盟，認識到我們社會的弊病不僅僅是一套糟糕的政策，而是絕望和自滿的不適。我們想要的聯盟不會因為恐懼而陷入無所作為。對氣候變化的恐懼，對戰爭的恐懼，對技術的恐懼。相反，我們想要一個大膽地向未來競速的聯盟。我們唯一害怕的恥辱，是沒有讓我們的孩子為我們的國家更強大、更富有而感到驕傲。
一個準備保衛我們的人民，維護我們的利益，並維護行動自由的聯盟，使我們能夠塑造自己的命運，而不是為了營運全球福利國家和贖罪過去幾代人所謂的罪惡而存在的聯盟。一個不允許其權力外包、約束或從屬於其無法控制的系統的聯盟。一個不依賴他人來滿足其國家生活的關鍵必需品。一個不保持禮貌的假裝，即我們的生活方式只是眾多生活方式中的一種，不必在行動之前徵求許可。
最重要的是，一個基於我們西方共同繼承的認可的聯盟，我們共同繼承的東西是獨一無二的、與眾不同的和不可替代的。因為，畢竟，這就是跨大西洋紐帶的基礎。
以這種方式共同行動，我們會幫助恢復理智的外交政策。它將恢復我們對自我的清晰意識。它將恢復世界上的一席之地。這樣做，它將斥責和阻止今天威脅美國和歐洲的文明抹殺勢力。
美國的歐洲遺產
因此，在頭條新聞時代，跨大西洋時代的結束，既不是我們的目標，也不是我們的願望。因為對於我們美國人來說，我們的家可能在西半球，但我們永遠是歐洲的孩子。
我們的故事始於一位義大利探險家，他冒險進入蠻荒，發現一個新的世界，將基督教帶到美洲，並成為定義我們先驅國家想像力的傳奇。我們的第一個殖民地是由英國定居者建立的，不僅流傳下我們所說的語言，還奠定了整個政治和法律體系。
我們的邊界是由蘇格蘭-愛爾蘭人塑造的，這個來自阿爾斯特山上的驕傲、堅強的家族給了我們戴維·克羅克特、馬克·吐溫、泰迪·羅斯福和尼爾·阿姆斯特朗。我們偉大的中西部中心地帶是由德國農民和工匠建造的，他們將空曠的平原變成了全球農業強國。順便說一句，這極大地提升了美國啤酒的品質。
順便說一句，我們沿著法國毛皮貿易商和探險家的腳步向內陸擴張，他們的名字仍然裝飾著整個密西西比河谷的街道標誌和城鎮名稱。我們的馬匹，我們的牧場，我們的牛仔競技表演，成為美國西部代名詞的牛仔原型的整個浪漫。這些人出生在西班牙，我們最大和最具標誌性的城市，在被命名為紐約之前，被命名為新阿姆斯特丹。
你知道，在我國成立的那一年，洛倫佐和卡塔利娜·吉羅爾迪住在撒丁島皮埃蒙特王國的卡薩爾·蒙費拉托，何塞和曼努埃拉·雷納住在西班牙塞維亞。我不知道他們對從大英帝國獨立出來的13個殖民地有什麼了解，但這是我確定的。他們從未想過，250年後，他們的直系後裔之一今天會回到這個大陸，成為那個新生國家的首席外交官。
然而，我在這裡，被我自己的故事提醒，我們的歷史和命運將永遠聯絡在一起。在兩次毀滅性的世界大戰之後，我們一起重建了一個破碎的大陸。當我們發現自己再次被鐵幕分割時，自由西方與勇敢的持不同政見者聯手，反對東方的暴政，以擊敗蘇聯共產主義。我們互相爭鬥，然後和解，然後戰鬥，然後又和解。我們在從砥平里到坎大哈的戰場上並肩流血和死亡。
我今天在這裡明確指出，美國正在為新世紀的繁榮開闢道路，我們再次希望與您、我們親愛的盟友和我們最古老的朋友一起做到這一點。我們想與您一起做這件事，與一個以其遺產和歷史為榮的歐洲一起，與一個擁有創造力和自由精神的歐洲一起，與誕生了我們的文明的歐洲一起，與一個擁有自衛手段和生存意志的歐洲一起，將船隻送入未知的海洋。
我們應該為上個世紀共同取得的成就感到自豪，但現在我們必須面對並擁抱新的機遇。因為昨天已經過去了，未來是不可避免的，我們共同的命運，在等待著！謝謝你們！
RJ編譯
SECRETARY RUBIO: Thank you very much. We gather here today as members of a historic alliance, an alliance that saved and changed the world. When this conference began in1963, it was in a nation– actually, it was on a continent– that was divided against itself. The line between communism and freedom ran through the heart of Germany. The first barbed fences of the Berlin Wall had gone up just two years prior.
And just months before that first conference, before our predecessors first met here, here in Munich, the Cuban Missile Crisis had brought the world to the brink of nuclear destruction. Even as World War II still burned fresh in the memory of Americans and Europeans alike, we found ourselves staring down the barrel of a new global catastrophe– one with the potential for a new kind of destruction, more apocalyptic and final than anything before in the history of mankind.
At the time of that first gathering, Soviet communism was on the march. Thousands of years of Western civilization hung in the balance. At that time, victory was far from certain. But we were driven by a common purpose. We were unified not just by what we were fighting against; we were unified by what we were fighting for. And together, Europe and America prevailed and a continent was rebuilt. Our people prospered. In time, the East and West blocs were reunited. A civilization was once again made whole.
That infamous wall that had cleaved this nation into two came down, and with it an evil empire, and the East and West became one again. But the euphoria of this triumph led us to a dangerous delusion: that we had entered, quote,"the end of history;" that every nation would now be a liberal democracy; that the ties formed by trade and by commerce alone would now replace nationhood; that the rules-based global order– an overused term– would now replace the national interest; and that we would now live in a world without borders where everyone became a citizen of the world.
This was a foolish idea that ignored both human nature and it ignored the lessons of over5,000 years of recorded human history. And it has cost us dearly. In this delusion, we embraced a dogmatic vision of free and unfettered trade, even as some nations protected their economies and subsidized their companies to systematically undercut ours– shuttering our plants, resulting in large parts of our societies being deindustrialized, shipping millions of working and middle-class jobs overseas, and handing control of our critical supply chains to both adversaries and rivals.
We increasingly outsourced our sovereignty to international institutions while many nations invested in massive welfare states at the cost of maintaining the ability to defend themselves. This, even as other countries have invested in the most rapid military buildup in all of human history and have not hesitated to use hard power to pursue their own interests. To appease a climate cult, we have imposed energy policies on ourselves that are impoverishing our people, even as our competitors exploit oil and coal and natural gas and anything else– not just to power their economies, but to use as leverage against our own.
And in a pursuit of a world without borders, we opened our doors to an unprecedented wave of mass migration that threatens the cohesion of our societies, the continuity of our culture, and the future of our people. We made these mistakes together, and now, together, we owe it to our people to face those facts and to move forward, to rebuild.
Under President Trump, the United States of America will once again take on the task of renewal and restoration, driven by a vision of a future as proud, as sovereign, and as vital as our civilization's past. And while we are prepared, if necessary, to do this alone, it is our preference and it is our hope to do this together with you, our friends here in Europe.
For the United States and Europe, we belong together. America was founded250 years ago, but the roots began here on this continent long before. The man who settled and built the nation of my birth arrived on our shores carrying the memories and the traditions and the Christian faith of their ancestors as a sacred inheritance, an unbreakable link between the old world and the new.
We are part of one civilization– Western civilization. We are bound to one another by the deepest bonds that nations could share, forged by centuries of shared history, Christian faith, culture, heritage, language, ancestry, and the sacrifices our forefathers made together for the common civilization to which we have fallen heir.
And so this is why we Americans may sometimes come off as a little direct and urgent in our counsel. This is why President Trump demands seriousness and reciprocity from our friends here in Europe. The reason why, my friends, is because we care deeply. We care deeply about your future and ours. And if at times we disagree, our disagreements come from our profound sense of concern about a Europe with which we are connected– not just economically, not just militarily. We are connected spiritually and we are connected culturally. We want Europe to be strong. We believe that Europe must survive, because the two great wars of the last century serve for us as history's constant reminder that ultimately, our destiny is and will always be intertwined with yours, because we know–(applause)– because we know that the fate of Europe will never be irrelevant to our own.
National security, which this conference is largely about, is not merely series of technical questions– how much we spend on defense or where, how we deploy it, these are important questions. They are. But they are not the fundamental one. The fundamental question we must answer at the outset is what exactly are we defending, because armies do not fight for abstractions. Armies fight for a people; armies fight for a nation. Armies fight for a way of life. And that is what we are defending: a great civilization that has every reason to be proud of its history, confident of its future, and aims to always be the master of its own economic and political destiny.
It was here in Europe where the ideas that planted the seeds of liberty that changed the world were born. It was here in Europe where the world– which gave the world the rule of law, the universities, and the scientific revolution. It was this continent that produced the genius of Mozart and Beethoven, of Dante and Shakespeare, of Michelangelo and Da Vinci, of the Beatles and the Rolling Stones. And this is the place where the vaulted ceilings of the Sistine Chapel and the towering spires of the great cathedral in Cologne, they testify not just to the greatness of our past or to a faith in God that inspired these marvels. They foreshadow the wonders that await us in our future. But only if we are unapologetic in our heritage and proud of this common inheritance can we together begin the work of envisioning and shaping our economic and our political future.
Deindustrialization was not inevitable. It was a conscious policy choice, a decades-long economic undertaking that stripped our nations of their wealth, of their productive capacity, and of their independence. And the loss of our supply chain sovereignty was not a function of a prosperous and healthy system of global trade. It was foolish. It was a foolish but voluntary transformation of our economy that left us dependent on others for our needs and dangerously vulnerable to crisis.
Mass migration is not, was not, isn't some fringe concern of little consequence. It was and continues to be a crisis which is transforming and destabilizing societies all across the West. Together we can reindustrialize our economies and rebuild our capacity to defend our people. But the work of this new alliance should not be focused just on military cooperation and reclaiming the industries of the past. It should also be focused on, together, advancing our mutual interests and new frontiers, unshackling our ingenuity, our creativity, and the dynamic spirit to build a new Western century. Commercial space travel and cutting-edge artificial intelligence; industrial automation and flex manufacturing; creating a Western supply chain for critical minerals not vulnerable to extortion from other powers; and a unified effort to compete for market share in the economies of the Global South. Together we can not only take back control of our own industries and supply chains– we can prosper in the areas that will define the21st century.
But we must also gain control of our national borders. Controlling who and how many people enter our countries, this is not an expression of xenophobia. It is not hate. It is a fundamental act of national sovereignty. And the failure to do so is not just an abdication of one of our most basic duties owed to our people. It is an urgent threat to the fabric of our societies and the survival of our civilization itself.
And finally, we can no longer place the so-called global order above the vital interests of our people and our nations. We do not need to abandon the system of international cooperation we authored, and we don't need to dismantle the global institutions of the old order that together we built. But these must be reformed. These must be rebuilt.
For example, the United Nations still has tremendous potential to be a tool for good in the world. But we cannot ignore that today, on the most pressing matters before us, it has no answers and has played virtually no role. It could not solve the war in Gaza. Instead, it was American leadership that freed captives from barbarians and brought about a fragile truce. It had not solved the war in Ukraine. It took American leadership and partnership with many of the countries here today just to bring the two sides to the table in search of a still-elusive peace.
It was powerless to constrain the nuclear program of radical Shia clerics in Tehran. That required14 bombs dropped with precision from American B-2 bombers. And it was unable to address the threat to our security from a narcoterrorist dictator in Venezuela. Instead, it took American Special Forces to bring this fugitive to justice.
In a perfect world, all of these problems and more would be solved by diplomats and strongly worded resolutions. But we do not live in a perfect world, and we cannot continue to allow those who blatantly and openly threaten our citizens and endanger our global stability to shield themselves behind abstractions of international law which they themselves routinely violate.
This is the path that President Trump and the United States has embarked upon. It is the path we ask you here in Europe to join us on. It is a path we have walked together before and hope to walk together again. For five centuries, before the end of the Second World War, the West had been expanding– its missionaries, its pilgrims, its soldiers, its explorers pouring out from its shores to cross oceans, settle new continents, build vast empires extending out across the globe.
But in1945, for the first time since the age of Columbus, it was contracting. Europe was in ruins. Half of it lived behind an Iron Curtain and the rest looked like it would soon follow. The great Western empires had entered into terminal decline, accelerated by godless communist revolutions and by anti-colonial uprisings that would transform the world and drape the red hammer and sickle across vast swaths of the map in the years to come.
Against that backdrop, then, as now, many came to believe that the West's age of dominance had come to an end and that our future was destined to be a faint and feeble echo of our past. But together, our predecessors recognized that decline was a choice, and it was a choice they refused to make. This is what we did together once before, and this is what President Trump and the United States want to do again now, together with you.
And this is why we do not want our allies to be weak, because that makes us weaker. We want allies who can defend themselves so that no adversary will ever be tempted to test our collective strength. This is why we do not want our allies to be shackled by guilt and shame. We want allies who are proud of their culture and of their heritage, who understand that we are heirs to the same great and noble civilization, and who, together with us, are willing and able to defend it.
And this is why we do not want allies to rationalize the broken status quo rather than reckon with what is necessary to fix it, for we in America have no interest in being polite and orderly caretakers of the West's managed decline. We do not seek to separate, but to revitalize an old friendship and renew the greatest civilization in human history. What we want is a reinvigorated alliance that recognizes that what has ailed our societies is not just a set of bad policies but a malaise of hopelessness and complacency. An alliance– the alliance that we want is one that is not paralyzed into inaction by fear– fear of climate change, fear of war, fear of technology. Instead, we want an alliance that boldly races into the future. And the only fear we have is the fear of the shame of not leaving our nations prouder, stronger, and wealthier for our children.
An alliance ready to defend our people, to safeguard our interests, and to preserve the freedom of action that allows us to shape our own destiny– not one that exists to operate a global welfare state and atone for the purported sins of past generations. An alliance that does not allow its power to be outsourced, constrained, or subordinated to systems beyond its control; one that does not depend on others for the critical necessities of its national life; and one that does not maintain the polite pretense that our way of life is just one among many and that asks for permission before it acts. And above all, an alliance based on the recognition that we, the West, have inherited together– what we have inherited together is something that is unique and distinctive and irreplaceable, because this, after all, is the very foundation of the transatlantic bond.
Acting together in this way, we will not just help recover a sane foreign policy. It will restore to us a clearer sense of ourselves. It will restore a place in the world, and in so doing, it will rebuke and deter the forces of civilizational erasure that today menace both America and Europe alike.
So in a time of headlines heralding the end of the transatlantic era, let it be known and clear to all that this is neither our goal nor our wish– because for us Americans, our home may be in the Western Hemisphere, but we will always be a child of Europe.(Applause.)
Our story began with an Italian explorer whose adventure into the great unknown to discover a new world brought Christianity to the Americas– and became the legend that defined the imagination of a our pioneer nation.
Our first colonies were built by English settlers, to whom we owe not just the language we speak but the whole of our political and legal system. Our frontiers were shaped by Scots-Irish– that proud, hearty clan from the hills of Ulster that gave us Davy Crockett and Mark Twain and Teddy Roosevelt and Neil Armonstrong.
Our great midwestern heartland was built by German farmers and craftsmen who transformed empty plains into a global agricultural powerhouse– and by the way, dramatically upgraded the quality of American beer.(Laughter.)
Our expansion into the interior followed the footsteps of French fur traders and explorers whose names, by the way, still adorn the street signs and towns' names all across the Mississippi Valley. Our horses, our ranches, our rodeos– the entire romance of the cowboy archetype that became synonymous with the American West– these were born in Spain. And our largest and most iconic city was named New Amsterdam before it was named New York.
And do you know that in the year that my country was founded, Lorenzo and Catalina Geroldi lived in Casale Monferrato in the Kingdom of Piedmont-Sardinia. And Jose and Manuela Reina lived in Sevilla, Spain. I don't know what, if anything, they knew about the13 colonies which had gained their independence from the British empire, but here's what I am certain of: They could have never imagined that250 years later, one of their direct descendants would be back here today on this continent as the chief diplomat of that infant nation. And yet here I am, reminded by my own story that both our histories and our fates will always be linked.
Together we rebuilt a shattered continent in the wake of two devastating world wars. When we found ourselves divided once again by the Iron Curtain, the free West linked arms with the courageous dissidents struggling against tyranny in the East to defeat Soviet communism. We have fought against each other, then reconciled, then fought, then reconciled again. And we have bled and died side by side on battlefields from Kapyong to Kandahar.
And I am here today to leave it clear that America is charting the path for a new century of prosperity, and that once again we want to do it together with you, our cherished allies and our oldest friends.(Applause.)
We want to do it together with you, with a Europe that is proud of its heritage and of its history; with a Europe that has the spirit of creation of liberty that sent ships out into uncharted seas and birthed our civilization; with a Europe that has the means to defend itself and the will to survive. We should be proud of what we achieved together in the last century, but now we must confront and embrace the opportunities of a new one– because yesterday is over, the future is inevitable, and our destiny together awaits. Thank you.(Applause.)
QUESTION: Mr. Secretary, I'm not sure you heard the sigh of relief through this hall when we were just listening to what I would interpret as a message of reassurance, of partnership. You spoke of intertwined relations between the United States and Europe– reminds me of statements made decades ago by your predecessors when the discussion was: is actually America a European power? Is America a power in Europe? Thank you for offering this message of reassurance about our partnership.
This is actually not the first time that Marco Rubio is here at the Munich Security Conference– been here before a couple of times, but it's the first time he has been and he is the speaker as Secretary of State. So thank you again. We have only a couple of minutes now for just a few questions, and if I may, we collected questions from the audience.
One of the key issues here yesterday, today, is, of course– continues to be the question of how to deal with the war in Ukraine. Many of us in the discussions over the last day, the last24 hours, have voiced their impression that the Russians– let me put it colloquially– the Russians are playing for time, they're not really interested in a meaningful settlement. There is no indication that they're willing to compromise on any of their maximalist objectives. Offer to us, if you could, your assessment of where we are and where you think we can go.
SECRETARY RUBIO: Well, I think where we are at this point is that the issues at play that have to be– here's the good news. The good news is that the issues that need to be confronted to end this war have been narrowed. That's the good news. The bad news is they've been narrowed to the hardest questions to answer, and work remains to be done in that front. I hear your point about– the answer is we don't know. We don't know the Russians are serious about ending the war; they say they are– and under what terms they were willing to do it and whether we can find terms that are acceptable to Ukraine that Russia will always agree to. But we're going to continue to test it.
In the meantime, everything else continues to happen. The United States has imposed additional sanctions on Russia's oil. In our conversations with India, we've gotten their commitment to stop buying additional Russian oil. Europe has taken its set of steps moving forward. The Pearl Program continues in which American weaponry is being sold for the Ukrainian war effort. So all these things continue. Nothing has stopped in the interim. So there's no buying of time here in that regard.
What we can't answer– but we're going to continue to test– is whether there is an outcome that Ukraine can live with and that Russia will accept. And I would say it's been elusive up to this point. We've made progress in the sense that for the first time, I think in years, at least at the technical level, there were military officials from both sides that met together last week, and there'll be– and there'll be meetings again on Tuesday, although it may not be the same group of people.
Look, we're going to continue to do everything we can to play this role of bringing this war to an end. I don't think anybody in this room would be against a negotiated settlement to this war so long as the conditions are just and sustainable. And that's what we aim to achieve, and we're going to continue to try to achieve it, even as all these other things continue to happen on the sanctions front and so forth.
QUESTION: Thank you very much. I'm sure if we had more time there were many questions on Ukraine. But let me conclude by asking a question about something entirely different. The next speaker here in just a couple of minutes will be the foreign minister of China. When you served in the Senate, sir, people considered you a kind of a China hawk.
SECRETARY RUBIO: So did they.
QUESTION: So did they?
SECRETARY RUBIO: Yeah.
QUESTION: The– we know that there will be, in about two months' time, a summit meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping. Give us your expectation. Are you optimistic? Can there be a, quote/unquote,"deal" with China? What do you expect?
SECRETARY RUBIO: Well, I would say this. The two largest economies in the world, two of the big powers on the planet, we have an obligation to communicate with them and talk, and so do many of you on a bilateral basis as well. I mean, it would be geopolitical malpractice to not be in conversations with China. I would say this: because we're two large countries with huge global interests, our national interests will often not align. Their national interests and ours will not align, and we owe it to the world to try to manage those as best we can, obviously avoiding conflict, both economic and worse. And that– so it's important for us to have communications with them in that regard.
On areas in which our interests are aligned, I think we can work together to make positive impact on the world, and we seek opportunities to do that with them. So– but we have to have a relationship with China. And any of the countries represented here today are going to have to have a relationship with China, always understanding that nothing that we agree to could come at the expense of our national interest. And frankly, we expect China to act in their national interest, as we expect every nation-state to act in their national interest. And the goal of diplomacy is to try to navigate those times in which our national interests come into conflict with one another, always hoping to do it peacefully.
I think we also have a special obligation because whatever happens between the U.S. and China on trade has a global implication. So there are long-term challenges that we face that we're going to have to confront that are going to be irritants in our relationship with China. That's not just true for the United States; that's true for the broader West. But I do think we need to try to manage those the best we can to avoid unnecessary friction if it's possible. But no one is under any illusions. There are some fundamental challenges between our countries and between the West and China that will continue for the foreseeable future for a variety of reasons, and it's some of the things we hope to work together with you on.
QUESTION: Thank you very much, Mr. Secretary. We've run out of time. I'm sorry that I can't take questions from all those who wanted to ask questions. Mr. Secretary of State, thank you for this message of reassurance. I think this is much appreciated here in the hall. Let's offer a round of applause.(Applause.)
