為了對抗所謂「流行的現實」，一些著名歷史學家長期以來就在提醒我們要注意「進步的幻像」。75湯因比的歷史周期論未必是人類社會的普遍形態，但接受他的建議，保持一種歷史悲觀主義的感悟，從而更加清醒地觀察我們的過去，是很有助益的。76秉持這一精神，本文試圖展示歷史周期這一概念的持久價值（至少在某些時代和地區），希望以此增加從宏觀上審視歷史變遷的能力，並通過政權之間、時代之間的比較找出歷史變遷的範式。77隻有藉助這樣的歷史回望，才可能去重審乃至解決那些持續縈繞於中華民族現代化道路上的諸多問題。
注釋：
1.原文為英文，寫於2009年10月，見Guoguang Wu,「Protests Against Prosperity: The Recurring Chinese Dilemma of Economic Achievement Versus Political Discontent,」 Modern China Studies22,2(March2015), pp.47-72.
2.對中國近代史的概述，參閱Jack Gray, Rebellions and Revolutions: China from the1800s to2000, Oxford: Oxford University Press,2002,2nd ed.
3.Benjamin Schwartz, In Search of Wealth and Power: Yen Fu and the West, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press,1964.
4.這方面的代表性作品，參見：范文瀾，《中國近代史》，北京：人民出版社，1955；胡繩，《從鴉片戰爭到五四運動》（兩卷本），北京：人民出版社，1981。
5.例見：Douglas S. Paauw,「The Kuomintang and Economic Stagnation1928-1937,」 Journal of Asian Studies16,2(February1957),213-20; Lloyd E. Eastman, The Abortive Revolution: China under Nationalist Rule,1927-1937, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press,1974.
6. Marie-Claire Bergè, The Golden Age of the Chinese Bourgeoisie,1911-1937, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1990.
7.持這種觀點的中國馬克思主義歷史著作，見:范文瀾，《中國近代史》；胡繩，《從鴉片戰爭到五四運動》。非馬克思主義立場、但持同樣觀點的著作，包括：蔣廷黻，《中國近代史大綱》，上海：青年書店，1939；李劍農，《中國近百年政治史》，台北：台北商務印書館，1974。
8.胡繩，《從鴉片戰爭到五四運動》。
9.Ting-yee Kuo and Kwang-Ching Liu,「Self-Strengthening: The Pursuit of Western Technology,」 in John K. Fairbank ed., The Cambridge History of China, Vol.10, Late Ch』ing,1800-1911, Part I, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1978, pp.491-542.
10.Jonathan D. Spence, The Search for Modern China, New York: W.W. Norton,1999,2nd ed, p.240.
11.Graham Hutchings, Modern China: A Guide to a Century of Change, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press,2000, p.4.
12.胡繩，《從鴉片戰爭到五四運動》，頁655-6。
13.John King Fairbank, The Great Chinese Revolution,1800-1985, New York: Harper& Row,1986, p.141.
14.同上，p.156。
15.Philip Richardson, Economic Change in China, c.1800-1950, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1999, p.32.
16.當然，日本大致在這一時期上升到了「Great Power」地位。對這一過程的概述，參見Paul Kennedy, The Rise and
17.Fall of the Great Powers, New York: Vintage Books,1987, pp.206-9.
18.Thomas G. Rawski, Economic Growth in Pre-War China, Berkeley: University of California Press,1989, pp.336-7.
Chalmers Johnson, MITI and the Japanese Miracle: The Growth of Industrial Policy,1925-1975, Stanford: Stanford University Press,1982, p.209.另見Kazushi Ohkawa and Henry Rosovsky, Japanese Economic Growth: Trend Acceleration in the Twentieth Century, Stanford: Stanford University Press,1973.
19.Richardson, Economic Change in China, p.41.
20.同上，p.43。
21.同上。
22.Albert Feuerwerker, The Chinese Economy, ca.1870-1911, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press,1969, pp.50-3.
23.Richardson, Economic Change in China, p.45.
24.以馬克思主義觀點對近代中國鐵路建設的政治後果的研究，見：宓汝成，《帝國主義與中國鐵路》，上海：上海人民出版社，1980，特別是第四章對鐵路建設如何引發地方反抗的討論。
25.Hutchings, Modern China, p.4.
26.同上。
27.同上。
28.同上。
29.Marie-Claire Bergè,「The Chinese Bourgeoisie,1911-37,」 in John K. Fairbank ed., The Cambridge History of China, Vol.12, Republican China1912-1949, Part I, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1983, p.745.
30.同上，p.746.
31.同上，p.747.
32.同上
33.同上，p.748.
34.同上，p.750.
35.Hutchings, Modern China, p.8.
36.同上，p.9.
37.同上。
38. Mankin, John K. Fairbank, and Albert Feuerwerker,「Introduction,」 in John K. Fairbank and Albert Feuerwerker eds., The Cambrary B. Ridge History of China, Vol.13, Republican China1912-1949, Part II, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1986, pp.28-9.
39.Richardson, Economic Change in C p.28.
40.同上，p.43.
41.同上，pp.44-5.
42.同上，p.45.
43.同上，p.46.
44.Diana Lary, China’s Republic, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2007, p.68.
45.Bergè,「The Chinese Bourgeoisie,」 p.824.
46.Lloyd E. Eastman,「Nationalist China during the Nanking Decade,1927-1937,」 in Fairbank and Feuerwerker, The Cambridge History of China, Vol.13, Republican China1912-1949, Part II, p.155.
47.同上。並參見Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, chp.6.
48. Lloyd E. Eastman,「Nationalist China during the Sino-Japanese War,1937-1945,」 in Fairbank and Albert Feuerwerker, The Cambridge History of China, Vol.13, Republican China1912-1949, Part II, p.594.
49.Hutchings, Modern China, p.9.
50.同上。
51.同上。
52. Bergè「The Chinese Bourgeoisie,」 p.751.
53.Ranbir Vohra, China’s Path to Modernization: A Historical Review from1800 to the Present, Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall,2000,3rd ed, pp.148-9.
54. Eastman,「Nationalist China during the Nanking Decade,」 p.151.
55.Bergè,「The Chinese Bourgeoisie,」 p.819.
56.同上，p.750.
57.例見：Lucian Bianco, Origins of the Chinese Revolution,1915-1949, Stanford: Stanford University Press,1967; Fairbank, The Great Chinese Revolution.
58.近年來出現了一批研究中國社會不滿加劇的文獻。對後天安門時代抗議的系統研究，參見：Thomas P. Bernstein,「Farmer Discontent and Regime Responses,」 in Merle Goldman and Roderick MacFarquhar eds., The Paradox of China’s Post-Mao Reforms, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press,1999, pp.197-219; Yongshun Cai,「The Resistance of Chinese Laid-off Workers in the Reform Period,」 China Quarterly,170(2002), pp.327-44; Peter Hays Gries and Stanley Rosen eds., State and Society in21st Century China: Crisis, Contention, and Legitimation, London: Routledge,2004; Kevin J. O‟Brien and Lianjiang Li, Rightful Resistance in Rural China, New York: Cambridge University Press,2006; Ching Kwan Lee, Against the Law: Labor Pretests in China’s Rustbelt and Sunbelt, Berkeley: University of California Press,2007; Kevin J. O‟Brien ed., Popular Protest in China, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press,2008; Chih-jou Jay Chen,「Growing Social Unrest in China: Rising Discontents and Popular Protests,」 in Guoguang Wu and Helen Lansdowne eds., Socialist China, Capitalist China: Social Tension and Political Adaptation under Economic Globalization, London: Routledge,2009, pp.10-28; Yongshun Cai, Collective Resistance in China: Why Popular Protests Succeed or Fail, Stanford: Stanford University Press,2010; Martin King Whyte, Myth of the Social Volcano: Perceptions of Inequality and Distributive Injustice in Contemporary China, Stanford: Stanford University Press,2010.
59.汝信、陸學藝、李培林，《2005年：中國社會形勢分析和預測》，北京：社會科學文獻出版社，2004。
60.,2006年11曰27日讀取。另見Chen,「Growing Social Unrest in China,」 p.10.
61.有關日常抗議，見James C. Scott, Weapons of the Weak: Everyday Forms of Peasant
Resistance, New Haven: Yale University Press,1985.關於中國的上訪，請見下文。有關中國網絡活動及其作為政治抗議的途徑，例見Merle Goldman, From Comrade to Citizen: The Struggle for Political Rights in China, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press,2005, chapter6.關於最近針對政府官員個體的暴力行為的增加，參見Guoguang Wu,「China in2009: Muddling through Crises,」 Asian Survey50,1(January/February2010), pp.25-39.
62.肖唐鏢，「二十餘年來中國大陸農村的政治穩定狀況」，，2006年11月28日張貼，2007年3月3日讀取。
63.它同時還程浩、黃衛平、汪永成，「中國社會利益集團研究」，《戰略與管理》，2003年3期。是中共中央下屬的信訪局，是一套機構、兩塊牌子。
64.程浩、黃衛平、汪永成，「中國社會利益集團研究」，《戰略與管理》，2003年3期。
65.《人民日報》，2004年8月4日，15版。
66. Li Li,「Life in a Struggle,」 Beijing Review, November10,2005, p.21.
67. Keyuan Zou,「Granting or refusing the Right to Petition: The Dilemma of China’s Xinfang System,」 in Wu and Lansdowne, Socialist China, Capitalist China, pp.124-37.
68.Guoguang Wu,「Conclusion: Social Tension and Political Adaptation under Globalization,」 in Wu and Lansdowne, Socialist China, Capitalist China, pp.190-208.
69.Mary Elizabeth Gallagher, Contagious Capitalism: Globalization and the Politics of Labor in China, Princeton: Princeton University Press,2005; Dorothy J. Solinger, States』 Gains, Labor’s Losses: China, France, and Mexico Choose Global Liaisons,1980-2000, Ithaca: Cornell University Press,2009; Wu,「Conclusion,」 in Wu and Lansdowne, Socialist China, Capitalist China, pp.190-208.
70.Minxin Pei, China’s Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press,2006; Susan L. Shirk, China: Fragile Superpower, New York: Oxford University Press,2007.
71.Susan Mann Jones and Philip A. Kuhn,「Dynastic Decline and the Roots of Rebellion,」 in Fairbank, The Cambridge History of China, Vol.10, Late Ch』ing,1800-1911, Part I, pp.107-62.有關中國、特別是清代的王朝循環，參見Mary Clabaugh Wright, The Last Stand of Chinese Conservatism: The T』ung-Chih Restoration,1862-1874, Stanford: Stanford University Press,1957; Frederic Wakeman, Jr., The Fall of Imperial China, New York: Free Press,1975.
72.Wright, The Last Stand of Chinese Conservatism, chap11.
73.Albert Feuerwerker ed., History in Communist China, Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press,1968,特別是其中 Albert Feuerwerker,「China’s Modern Economic History in Communist Chinese Historiography,」 pp.216-46.另見：王壽林，「新政權的思想塑造：新中國成立前後的學習社會發展史運動」，《中共黨史研究》，2009年10期，頁58-66。
74.引自Albert Feuerwerker,「Economic Trends,1912-49,」 in Fairbank, The Cambridge History of China, Vol.12, Republican China1912-1949, Part I, p.127.
75.Arnold J. Toynbee, A Study of History, New York: Oxford University Press,1947, p.38.
76.同上，p.251.
77.有關比較歷史研究的方法，見James Mahoney and Dietrich Rueschemeyer eds., Comparative Historical Analysis in the Social Sciences, New York: Cambridge University Press,2003.
